
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ticker
will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28
Volume
322.7K
24h volume
6.2K
1w volume
141.9K
Open interest
27.1K
Liquidity
5.2K
Liquidity CLOB
5.2K
Start
Feb 11, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 11, 2026
Event ID
205273
Slug
will-russia-enter-ternuvate-again-by-february-28
Markets
3
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"context_description": "Ukrainian forces have held Ternuvate in Zaporizhzhia Oblast under firm control since liberating the settlement from a brief Russian incursion in early February 2026, with ISW maps confirming no verified Russian re-entry as of late March. No major military developments specific to Ternuvate have occurred in the past 30 days amid broader Zaporizhzhia front stagnation, where Ukrainian advances west of the area offset limited Russian probing attacks. Trader consensus reflects caution on rapid Russian gains, influenced by Ukrainian counteroffensives reclaiming over 200 square kilometers since January, ongoing aid constraints, and seasonal mud hindering maneuvers. Key watches include potential Russian escalation in spring offensives or diplomatic shifts in peace talks.",
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