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AI bubble burst by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ticker
ai-bubble-burst-by
Volume
2.6M
24h volume
666
1w volume
37.0K
Open interest
65.1K
Liquidity
18.0K
Liquidity CLOB
18.0K
Start
Nov 20, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 20, 2025
Event ID
85299
Slug
ai-bubble-burst-by
Markets
3
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probability for an AI bubble burst by year-end 2026, anchored by Big Tech hyperscalers—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—committing $650–720 billion in 2026 capital expenditures for AI infrastructure, up sharply from prior estimates per Goldman Sachs and Bridgewater analyses. This sustained investment race offsets concerns like surging energy costs, unproven returns on hyperscale data centers, and year-to-date drops exceeding 20% in AI software stocks such as Salesforce and ServiceNow. Venture capitalist Bill Gurley's March warning of an impending strain highlighted overinvestment risks, yet NVIDIA and semiconductor ETFs remain far from the 50% or 40% drawdown thresholds defining a downturn. Key catalysts ahead include Q1 earnings guidance and AI ROI demonstrations from enterprise deployments.",
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}- AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?Vol 2.0MLiq 18.1KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?Vol 385.0KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2025?Vol 203.0KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed