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Another US strike on Venezuela by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
another-us-strike-on-venezuela-by
Volume
2.5M
1w volume
539.0K
Open interest
34.2K
Liquidity
12.7K
Liquidity CLOB
12.7K
Start
Jan 3, 2026
End
Jan 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 3, 2026
Event ID
140711
Slug
another-us-strike-on-venezuela-by
Markets
5
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Following the January 3, 2026, US special operations strike on Caracas that captured Nicolás Maduro and suppressed air defenses to secure oil assets, no further US drone, missile, or airstrike on Venezuelan soil has been reported. In the past week, the US reopened its embassy in Caracas on March 30, signaling a new diplomatic chapter, and lifted sanctions on acting President Delcy Rodríguez on April 1 amid her efforts to stabilize the transition government. These de-escalation steps, coupled with US control over oil revenues and focus on regional priorities like Iran and Cuba, have reduced escalation risks from cartels or regime holdouts. Upcoming congressional oversight on Latin America policy and potential coalition negotiations could sway trader assessments of renewed military engagement.",
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}- Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?Vol 485.8KLiq 12.4KEnd Jan 31, 2026OpenOrder book
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