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Another US strike on Venezuela by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
another-us-strike-on-venezuela-by
Volume
2.5M
24h volume
1
1w volume
542.1K
Open interest
32.1K
Liquidity
12.3K
Liquidity CLOB
12.3K
Start
Jan 3, 2026
End
Jan 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 3, 2026
Event ID
140711
Slug
another-us-strike-on-venezuela-by
Markets
5
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Following the U.S. military strikes on January 3, 2026, that captured Nicolás Maduro on narco-terrorism charges, Venezuela's interim government under President Delcy Rodríguez has pursued stabilization, prompting de-escalation with Washington. No further military actions have occurred in the past 30 days, with key developments including reestablished diplomatic ties in early March, U.S. sanctions relief on Rodríguez on April 1, normalized relations announced April 4, and a U.S. phased stabilization strategy outlined April 7. These diplomatic advances and cooperation reduce escalation risks, though trader consensus reflects uncertainty over transition timelines, potential holdouts from Maduro loyalists, or regional instability that could prompt renewed intervention. Upcoming hearings for Maduro in U.S. courts may influence bilateral dynamics.",
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}- Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?Vol 488.9KLiq 12.2KEnd Jan 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?Vol 762.7KLiq —End Jan 31, 2026Closed
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- Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?Vol 167.8KLiq —End Jan 31, 2026Closed