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Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ticker
avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-march
Volume
1.6M
24h volume
2.3K
1w volume
47.7K
Open interest
92.4K
Liquidity
43.8K
Liquidity CLOB
43.8K
Start
Mar 9, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 9, 2026
Event ID
257025
Slug
avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-march
Markets
7
Raw event data
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"title": "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of March?",
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{
"id": "1541749",
"question": "Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?",
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"question": "Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?",
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{
"id": "1541755",
"question": "Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?",
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{
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"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
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{
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"context_description": "Amid the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, verified maritime tracking data from sources like Windward and UKMTO shows average daily ship transits plummeted to under 10 by late March, down 95% from the historical norm of around 138 vessels, driving trader consensus to price the 0-10 outcome at 99.1%. Iranian attacks on over 20 merchant ships since early March, coupled with threats, mines, and selective access controls—primarily allowing Iranian and limited Chinese-flagged vessels—have effectively restricted commercial traffic through this critical oil chokepoint. While AIS-off transits or dark fleet activity could marginally revise counts upward, official reports confirm the near-standstill, with total March volume at just 181 ships; resolution awaits final end-of-month aggregation.",
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}
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