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Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ticker
avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-3
Volume
447.5K
Open interest
29.6K
Liquidity
—
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Apr 3, 2026
Status
Closed
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Event ID
303579
Slug
avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-3
Markets
7
Raw event data
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"title": "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?",
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"question": "Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?",
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"question": "Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?",
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"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:23.360723Z",
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"label": "Iran",
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"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 0-10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on April 3, 2026, reflecting verified satellite and AIS tracking data from sources like MarineTraffic and TankerTrackers.com amid Iran's blockade during the US-Iran conflict that began late February. Daily transits collapsed over 95% from pre-war norms of 120+ vessels, averaging 2-6 ships through early April, with April 1-2 logging just 9-10 amid tightly controlled IRGC passage—directly supporting the low bin. A recent US-Iran two-week ceasefire announced April 7 could boost future flows, but April 3 data remains firmly subdued. Realistic challenges include upward revisions in the market's IMF PortWatch resolution source or overlooked transits, though multi-source confirmation minimizes this risk.",
"context_requires_regen": true,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-09T20:03:57.403Z"
}
}- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?Vol 60.1KLiq —End Apr 3, 2026Closed
- Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?Vol 216.2KLiq —End Apr 3, 2026Closed
- Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?Vol 101.7KLiq —End Apr 3, 2026Closed
- Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?Vol 22.9KLiq —End Apr 3, 2026Closed
- Will there be between 30 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?Vol 18.2KLiq 0End Apr 3, 2026Closed
- Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?Vol 17.8KLiq —End Apr 3, 2026Closed
- Will there be between 50 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?Vol 10.5KLiq 0End Apr 3, 2026Closed