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Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ticker
avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-3
Volume
434.5K
24h volume
1.5K
1w volume
75.8K
Open interest
37.5K
Liquidity
35.5K
Liquidity CLOB
35.5K
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Apr 3, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Event ID
303579
Slug
avg-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-on-april-3
Markets
7
Raw event data
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"title": "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?",
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 98% implied probability for 0-10 ships in the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits on April 3, 2026, reflecting the persistent Iranian blockade amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict that began late February. Maritime tracking data shows traffic collapsed over 95% from pre-war norms of ~130 daily vessels, with March averaging just 7 transits amid near-total halts; early April's selective exemptions for allies like Iraq, Oman, and a French container ship on April 3 enabled minor upticks to 13-16 daily passages by April 5, yet the IMF Portwatch average for April 3 remains firmly suppressed below 10. Oil markets underscore the strain, with WTI pinned near $110/bbl in backwardation signaling acute physical scarcity. Scenarios challenging this positioning include rapid diplomatic breakthroughs post-Trump's expired April 6 deadline or US naval escorts boosting flows, though current restrictions favor sustained low volumes ahead of resolution data release.",
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}
}- Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?Vol 50.9KLiq 4.4KEnd Apr 3, 2026OpenOrder book
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