Loading event…
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.
Ticker
bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by
Volume
1.2M
24h volume
33.0K
1w volume
265.8K
Open interest
207.7K
Liquidity
53.0K
Liquidity CLOB
53.0K
Start
Mar 16, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 16, 2026
Event ID
276527
Slug
bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by
Markets
3
Tags
Raw event data
{
"id": "276527",
"ticker": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by",
"slug": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by",
"title": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. \n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-03-16T18:44:59.488518Z",
"creationDate": "2026-03-16T18:44:59.488514Z",
"endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 53043.56,
"volume": 1224029.7213049992,
"openInterest": 207723.10292499998,
"createdAt": "2026-03-16T15:59:28.809942Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T03:06:44.932589Z",
"competitive": 0.9320533134495294,
"volume24hr": 32953.501011,
"volume1wk": 265823.7153919999,
"volume1mo": 893704.2423970005,
"volume1yr": 893704.2423970005,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 53043.56,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 73,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1607575",
"question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?",
"conditionId": "0x2d7ff3eaa920d560debfac34e360670462e1e5ab35f653c9da992b45a854058b",
"slug": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-march-31",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-03-16T18:44:35.261Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "330325.4789079996",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-16T15:59:29.782399Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-08T13:57:47.328771Z",
"closedTime": "2026-04-07 16:09:05+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "March 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x16ae3ffd67d9b6e29d787500faf336008d66a43c80ec2e2fb68323b71d1e4db5",
"umaEndDate": "2026-04-07T16:09:05Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 330325.4789079996,
"endDateIso": "2026-04-30",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-16",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"99778214645114863668880041453529219633986641849591096749668602237070973011766\", \"72144287274956369240496150780787091482711945174734190368629188739039317360959\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volumeClob": 330325.4789079996,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-16T18:43:29Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 100,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.002,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.002,
"lastTradePrice": 0.004,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-16T18:42:14.729664Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1609728",
"question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?",
"conditionId": "0xcd26bdb63b81dfcc5482c42e9372c8a46091b1de1123d2afefb83df83fe859fd",
"slug": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-april-30",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "47420.3614",
"startDate": "2026-03-16T18:44:35.006Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.135\", \"0.865\"]",
"volume": "893668.2239139996",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-16T18:41:41.230835Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T03:09:33.536092Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "April 30",
"groupItemThreshold": "1",
"questionID": "0x340123a03cefe0b6b1aae79cb491af66bddda19a532c301c14047689bf5a12ed",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 893668.2239139996,
"liquidityNum": 47420.3614,
"endDateIso": "2026-04-30",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-16",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 29469.233232999995,
"volume1wk": 265787.69690899993,
"volume1mo": 893668.2239140006,
"volume1yr": 893668.2239140006,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"68763178427006805567687963157205459368686336843492282974222563638371290392637\", \"84582313335492225037882788013498040721657815470535256827405672153879869687298\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 29469.233232999995,
"volume1wkClob": 265787.69690899993,
"volume1moClob": 893668.2239140006,
"volume1yrClob": 893668.2239140006,
"volumeClob": 893668.2239139996,
"liquidityClob": 47420.3614,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-16T18:43:29Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8824372917999515,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.01,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.03,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.05,
"lastTradePrice": 0.13,
"bestBid": 0.13,
"bestAsk": 0.14,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-16T18:42:14.731075Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1980863",
"question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?",
"conditionId": "0x9647b0f18083245933f2d2ca09acbe7ce89ee60ba83ed01e984df4bc7888a214",
"slug": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-may-31",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "9114.3818",
"startDate": "2026-04-14T14:32:23.356445Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.23\", \"0.77\"]",
"volume": "106.658483",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-04-14T14:28:10.207446Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-15T03:08:54.790081Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "May 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "2",
"questionID": "0x0e9ae884bb987cfcbd8423f7409de7723dcad0867b0f22c9289f4944bf8a94f2",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 106.658483,
"liquidityNum": 9114.3818,
"endDateIso": "2026-04-30",
"startDateIso": "2026-04-14",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 106.658483,
"volume1wk": 106.658483,
"volume1mo": 106.658483,
"volume1yr": 106.658483,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"50593835060887644541304886936916227361253501730886355031778884057367095965579\", \"18315883317653952736078559145436077015082800264561996157051447413257028997421\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 106.658483,
"volume1wkClob": 106.658483,
"volume1moClob": 106.658483,
"volume1yrClob": 106.658483,
"volumeClob": 106.658483,
"liquidityClob": 9114.3818,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-04-14T14:31:19Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9320533134495294,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "182866",
"conditionId": "0x9647b0f18083245933f2d2ca09acbe7ce89ee60ba83ed01e984df4bc7888a214",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 50,
"startDate": "2026-04-14",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 50,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.08,
"oneHourPriceChange": -0.01,
"lastTradePrice": 0.28,
"bestBid": 0.19,
"bestAsk": 0.27,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-14T14:30:03.038701Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "102107",
"label": "houthi",
"slug": "houthi",
"createdAt": "2025-05-06T16:09:30.349974Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:20:21.666206Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "104136",
"label": "traffic",
"slug": "traffic",
"createdAt": "2026-03-09T19:17:32.753242Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:43.367074Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "309",
"label": "Oil",
"slug": "oil",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:53:13.969+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:53:13.977Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:24:22.413244Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "78",
"label": "Iran",
"slug": "iran",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "262",
"label": "Strait of Hormuz",
"slug": "strait-of-hormuz",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:45:34.694+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:45:34.718Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-13T23:00:06.482438Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "583",
"label": "shipping",
"slug": "shipping",
"publishedAt": "2023-11-28 17:17:35.313+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-28T17:17:35.328Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:22.660588Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "104235",
"label": "cape of good hope",
"slug": "cape-of-good-hope",
"createdAt": "2026-03-16T15:59:29.194469Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-16T16:00:06.528175Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "104009",
"label": "Regional Spillover",
"slug": "regional-spillover",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:56:34.326195Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:43.321334Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "749",
"label": "red sea",
"slug": "red-sea",
"publishedAt": "2023-12-18 19:19:19.262+00",
"createdAt": "2023-12-18T19:19:19.555Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.847911Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "582",
"label": "Houthis",
"slug": "houthis",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-28 17:17:34.313+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-28T17:17:34.34Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-28T17:00:00.634329Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Trader sentiment on Polymarket's Bab el-Mandeb Strait market reflects contained risks despite escalating Houthi threats since late March 2026 to shutter the chokepoint in retaliation for U.S. naval actions in the Strait of Hormuz, with the leading outcome—\"effectively closed by May 31\"—at a 22% implied probability backed by $1.2 million in volume. The strait, funneling 12% of seaborne oil trade and key container routes, remains open per IMF PortWatch transit data exceeding the <=10 ship average threshold for closure, buoyed by U.S. and European naval patrols amid prior Red Sea disruptions that spiked freight rates and depressed Suez Canal revenues by billions. Recent Brent crude volatility around $100 per barrel underscores energy supply risks, with upcoming Houthi strikes or coalition escalations as pivotal catalysts.",
"context_requires_regen": true,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-15T02:48:27.138Z"
}
}- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?Vol 107Liq 9.1KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?Vol 893.7KLiq 47.4KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?Vol 330.3KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed