Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Name: Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Start: 2026-03-16T18:44:59.488518Z
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00Z

Prediction market · Polymarket

Featured

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

Ticker

bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by

Volume

752.7K

24h volume

59.3K

1w volume

399.5K

Open interest

344.3K

Liquidity

66.2K

Liquidity CLOB

66.2K

Start

Mar 16, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 16, 2026

Event ID

276527

Slug

bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by

Markets

Tags

houthi traffic Oil Geopolitics Iran Strait of Hormuz shipping Politics cape of good hope Regional Spillover red sea Houthis

Raw event data

{
  "id": "276527",
  "ticker": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by",
  "slug": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by",
  "title": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. \n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-03-16T18:44:59.488518Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-03-16T18:44:59.488514Z",
  "endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": true,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 66177.33104,
  "volume": 752682.2455619997,
  "openInterest": 344254.099007,
  "createdAt": "2026-03-16T15:59:28.809942Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:28:41.225599Z",
  "competitive": 0.9538344143456696,
  "volume24hr": 59258.11383700001,
  "volume1wk": 399536.7624989999,
  "volume1mo": 752682.2455620003,
  "volume1yr": 752682.2455620003,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 66177.33104,
  "negRisk": false,
  "commentCount": 47,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1607575",
      "question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?",
      "conditionId": "0x2d7ff3eaa920d560debfac34e360670462e1e5ab35f653c9da992b45a854058b",
      "slug": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-march-31",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "34607.07454",
      "startDate": "2026-03-16T18:44:35.261Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0025\", \"0.9975\"]",
      "volume": "312896.86943899957",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-16T15:59:29.782399Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:31:05.471574Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "March 31",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x16ae3ffd67d9b6e29d787500faf336008d66a43c80ec2e2fb68323b71d1e4db5",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 312896.86943899957,
      "liquidityNum": 34607.07454,
      "endDateIso": "2026-04-30",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-16",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 9652.85723,
      "volume1wk": 107244.05468200003,
      "volume1mo": 312896.8694389999,
      "volume1yr": 312896.8694389999,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"99778214645114863668880041453529219633986641849591096749668602237070973011766\", \"72144287274956369240496150780787091482711945174734190368629188739039317360959\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 9652.85723,
      "volume1wkClob": 107244.05468200003,
      "volume1moClob": 312896.8694389999,
      "volume1yrClob": 312896.8694389999,
      "volumeClob": 312896.86943899957,
      "liquidityClob": 34607.07454,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-16T18:43:29Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8015991903848178,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 100,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "oneDayPriceChange": -0.002,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.008,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.002,
      "bestBid": 0.002,
      "bestAsk": 0.003,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "seriesColor": "",
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-16T18:42:14.729664Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    },
    {
      "id": "1609728",
      "question": "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?",
      "conditionId": "0xcd26bdb63b81dfcc5482c42e9372c8a46091b1de1123d2afefb83df83fe859fd",
      "slug": "bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-april-30",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "31564.3675",
      "startDate": "2026-03-16T18:44:35.006Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-end-of-april-Y8A7Ig2p8X2K.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.\n\nIf no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.\n\nRevisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c\n, including both the chart and downloadable files.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.28\", \"0.72\"]",
      "volume": "439785.37612300017",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-16T18:41:41.230835Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:31:06.455458Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "April 30",
      "groupItemThreshold": "1",
      "questionID": "0x340123a03cefe0b6b1aae79cb491af66bddda19a532c301c14047689bf5a12ed",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 439785.37612300017,
      "liquidityNum": 31564.3675,
      "endDateIso": "2026-04-30",
      "startDateIso": "2026-03-16",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 49605.25660700001,
      "volume1wk": 292292.7078169998,
      "volume1mo": 439785.37612300034,
      "volume1yr": 439785.37612300034,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"68763178427006805567687963157205459368686336843492282974222563638371290392637\", \"84582313335492225037882788013498040721657815470535256827405672153879869687298\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 49605.25660700001,
      "volume1wkClob": 292292.7078169998,
      "volume1moClob": 439785.37612300034,
      "volume1yrClob": 439785.37612300034,
      "volumeClob": 439785.37612300017,
      "liquidityClob": 31564.3675,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-16T18:43:29Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9538344143456696,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "103840",
          "conditionId": "0xcd26bdb63b81dfcc5482c42e9372c8a46091b1de1123d2afefb83df83fe859fd",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 40,
          "startDate": "2026-03-16",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 200,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.02,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.07,
      "oneHourPriceChange": 0.02,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": 0.02,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.28,
      "bestBid": 0.27,
      "bestAsk": 0.29,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "seriesColor": "",
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-16T18:42:14.731075Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "102107",
      "label": "houthi",
      "slug": "houthi",
      "createdAt": "2025-05-06T16:09:30.349974Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:20:21.666206Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104136",
      "label": "traffic",
      "slug": "traffic",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-09T19:17:32.753242Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:43.367074Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "309",
      "label": "Oil",
      "slug": "oil",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:53:13.969+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:53:13.977Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:24:22.413244Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "262",
      "label": "Strait of Hormuz",
      "slug": "strait-of-hormuz",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:45:34.694+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:45:34.718Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-13T23:00:06.482438Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "583",
      "label": "shipping",
      "slug": "shipping",
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-28 17:17:35.313+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-28T17:17:35.328Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:22.660588Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104235",
      "label": "cape of good hope",
      "slug": "cape-of-good-hope",
      "createdAt": "2026-03-16T15:59:29.194469Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-16T16:00:06.528175Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104009",
      "label": "Regional Spillover",
      "slug": "regional-spillover",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:56:34.326195Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:43.321334Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "749",
      "label": "red sea",
      "slug": "red-sea",
      "publishedAt": "2023-12-18 19:19:19.262+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-12-18T19:19:19.555Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.847911Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "582",
      "label": "Houthis",
      "slug": "houthis",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-28 17:17:34.313+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-28T17:17:34.34Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-28T17:00:00.634329Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": false,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "gmpChartMode": "default",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "featuredOrder": 20,
  "estimateValue": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Amid Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—escalated by Yemen's rebels warning of retaliation if Gulf states join US strikes on Iran—traders price in elevated disruption risks atop the ongoing Strait of Hormuz shutdown. This chokepoint handles 12% of global trade and 4-5 million barrels per day of oil, with rerouting via Africa's Cape already inflating container freight rates over 200% and insurance premiums. Brent crude hovers near $109 per barrel, up 50% in five weeks on supply fears, implying $20-40 per barrel added premium if closed. Polymarket's skin-in-the-game consensus reflects trader caution ahead of potential Houthi actions or diplomatic breakthroughs.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:19:43.206Z"
  }
}

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Vol 439.8KLiq 31.6KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?
Vol 312.9KLiq 34.6KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book