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Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats. A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Ticker
balance-of-power-2026-midterms
Volume
4.9M
24h volume
52.6K
1w volume
438.9K
Open interest
2.7M
Liquidity
596.0K
Liquidity CLOB
596.0K
Start
Jul 11, 2025
End
Nov 3, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jul 11, 2025
Event ID
32228
Slug
balance-of-power-2026-midterms
Markets
5
Raw event data
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}- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseVol 1.3MLiq 140.8KEnd Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseVol 1.0MLiq 100.3KEnd Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseVol 975.5KLiq 162.5KEnd Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book
- 2026 Balance of Power: OtherVol 913.0KLiq 78.5KEnd Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseVol 690.3KLiq 113.9KEnd Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book