Loading event…
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Ticker
how-high-will-us-unemployment-go-in-2026
Volume
348.5K
24h volume
468
1w volume
13.0K
Open interest
100.0K
Liquidity
16.6K
Liquidity CLOB
16.6K
Start
Jan 2, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 2, 2026
Event ID
138976
Slug
how-high-will-us-unemployment-go-in-2026
Markets
5
Raw event data
{
"id": "138976",
"ticker": "how-high-will-us-unemployment-go-in-2026",
"slug": "how-high-will-us-unemployment-go-in-2026",
"title": "How high will US unemployment go in 2026?",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. \n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-01-02T18:56:04.53782Z",
"creationDate": "2026-01-02T18:56:04.537817Z",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/march-unemployment-rate-wpcB-Q7lTi_r.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/march-unemployment-rate-wpcB-Q7lTi_r.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 16579.03522,
"volume": 348495.4992839999,
"openInterest": 99955.044058,
"createdAt": "2026-01-02T15:13:10.911961Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:36:42.764063Z",
"competitive": 0.9996001599360256,
"volume24hr": 467.55986,
"volume1wk": 12974.731387000002,
"volume1mo": 213966.110227,
"volume1yr": 348495.499284,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 16579.03522,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 13,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1087309",
"question": "Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?",
"conditionId": "0xf7cb64502151bde17648b90f53abc3e5338b4193d14a636e225dffcb245b5c16",
"slug": "will-us-unemployment-reach-at-least-5pt0-in-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "6048.8061",
"startDate": "2026-01-02T18:54:52.171645Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/march-unemployment-rate-wpcB-Q7lTi_r.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/march-unemployment-rate-wpcB-Q7lTi_r.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. \n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.48\", \"0.52\"]",
"volume": "82966.67808400003",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-02T15:13:11.750403Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:39:15.675602Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "5.0%",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x2dc3b62f4ebdc1b92b388846626da3e0a5775a9140571dea9e5f05c7ea125c8e",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 82966.67808400003,
"liquidityNum": 6048.8061,
"endDateIso": "2026-01-10",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 208.54,
"volume1wk": 6573.562368000002,
"volume1mo": 33972.031881999996,
"volume1yr": 82966.678084,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"108683340244272797423903928139400863604636305580987691842877673995933500284505\", \"31610604163245612527039147654126910320994564874113102346338822825545391109073\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 208.54,
"volume1wkClob": 6573.562368000002,
"volume1moClob": 33972.031881999996,
"volume1yrClob": 82966.678084,
"volumeClob": 82966.67808400003,
"liquidityClob": 6048.8061,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-02T18:54:29Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9996001599360256,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "52984",
"conditionId": "0xf7cb64502151bde17648b90f53abc3e5338b4193d14a636e225dffcb245b5c16",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 5,
"startDate": "2026-01-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.01,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.14,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.055,
"lastTradePrice": 0.49,
"bestBid": 0.47,
"bestAsk": 0.49,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-02T18:53:59.530246Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1087310",
"question": "Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x21a83ad85d5579df54f4659abf1a4e7722156b0b04204e77ecfa6c3533ceb5e5",
"slug": "will-us-unemployment-reach-at-least-5pt5-in-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "2742.7034",
"startDate": "2026-01-02T18:54:51.66448Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/march-unemployment-rate-wpcB-Q7lTi_r.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/march-unemployment-rate-wpcB-Q7lTi_r.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. \n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.3\", \"0.7\"]",
"volume": "179466.14424699987",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-02T15:13:12.242074Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:38:56.942414Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "5.5%",
"groupItemThreshold": "1",
"questionID": "0xe345a5461b4a7bdb7a8adee3355247d0c19eb19da43e0048cb2818fd4d5e3de1",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 179466.14424699987,
"liquidityNum": 2742.7034,
"endDateIso": "2026-01-10",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 14.66,
"volume1wk": 4779.059560999999,
"volume1mo": 152058.976368,
"volume1yr": 179466.14424700002,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"58884144594580042563372198820497497192697631032016162775180171730944301040415\", \"49030575490204403337716900150388944829796963524171519474187553365617680688108\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 14.66,
"volume1wkClob": 4779.059560999999,
"volume1moClob": 152058.976368,
"volume1yrClob": 179466.14424700002,
"volumeClob": 179466.14424699987,
"liquidityClob": 2742.7034,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-02T18:54:29Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9615384615384615,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "52983",
"conditionId": "0x21a83ad85d5579df54f4659abf1a4e7722156b0b04204e77ecfa6c3533ceb5e5",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 3,
"startDate": "2026-01-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.18,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.015,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.015,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.035,
"lastTradePrice": 0.2,
"bestBid": 0.21,
"bestAsk": 0.39,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-02T18:53:59.536561Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1087311",
"question": "Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x1b0a4870cd50bdf9e9e5bc9f8ad42b011fadd554610f99699db34dca6d09fde1",
"slug": "will-us-unemployment-reach-at-least-6pt0-in-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "2516.5718",
"startDate": "2026-01-02T18:54:51.156656Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/march-unemployment-rate-wpcB-Q7lTi_r.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/march-unemployment-rate-wpcB-Q7lTi_r.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. \n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.18\", \"0.82\"]",
"volume": "49373.680542",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-02T15:13:12.736769Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:39:37.970463Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "6.0%",
"groupItemThreshold": "2",
"questionID": "0x7f48816e3243c697d83540865383f1533cc9aab21367697d710849e3e8a3060e",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 49373.680542,
"liquidityNum": 2516.5718,
"endDateIso": "2026-01-10",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 148.15,
"volume1wk": 448.03434,
"volume1mo": 15037.368938999998,
"volume1yr": 49373.680542,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"108018091346802760465812775595296174303353396224301843350580443613286618815662\", \"96642366744342985490084449360899727131798386706388378322762704898800180852422\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 148.15,
"volume1wkClob": 448.03434,
"volume1moClob": 15037.368938999998,
"volume1yrClob": 49373.680542,
"volumeClob": 49373.680542,
"liquidityClob": 2516.5718,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-02T18:54:29Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9071117561683599,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "52987",
"conditionId": "0x1b0a4870cd50bdf9e9e5bc9f8ad42b011fadd554610f99699db34dca6d09fde1",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 3,
"startDate": "2026-01-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.015,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.03,
"oneMonthPriceChange": 0.005,
"lastTradePrice": 0.17,
"bestBid": 0.17,
"bestAsk": 0.19,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-02T18:53:59.533441Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1087312",
"question": "Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x109e5e08aee879d79a67aa1f22a3bb4684165a64b3fd9c85abecdbb28bf24cf5",
"slug": "will-us-unemployment-reach-at-least-7pt0-in-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "2945.0638",
"startDate": "2026-01-02T18:54:51.917983Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/march-unemployment-rate-wpcB-Q7lTi_r.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/march-unemployment-rate-wpcB-Q7lTi_r.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. \n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.135\", \"0.865\"]",
"volume": "16926.444020000003",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-02T15:13:13.251507Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:39:13.866502Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "7.0%",
"groupItemThreshold": "3",
"questionID": "0x6ae3f7452607a987d9188e936a8abeefa63cfc2848940595e29aaeca1bedbede",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 16926.444020000003,
"liquidityNum": 2945.0638,
"endDateIso": "2026-01-10",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 71.04,
"volume1wk": 490.45899399999996,
"volume1mo": 5932.088261999999,
"volume1yr": 16926.44402,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"68119694430506374917095643876147104955272369137258737380364271877393537133648\", \"90730065346491050423466890731523173031297529748126652187514109911538674088578\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 71.04,
"volume1wkClob": 490.45899399999996,
"volume1moClob": 5932.088261999999,
"volume1yrClob": 16926.44402,
"volumeClob": 16926.444020000003,
"liquidityClob": 2945.0638,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-02T18:54:29Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8824372917999515,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "52985",
"conditionId": "0x109e5e08aee879d79a67aa1f22a3bb4684165a64b3fd9c85abecdbb28bf24cf5",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 3,
"startDate": "2026-01-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.01,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.025,
"oneHourPriceChange": -0.005,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.01,
"oneMonthPriceChange": 0.005,
"lastTradePrice": 0.15,
"bestBid": 0.13,
"bestAsk": 0.14,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-02T18:53:59.53975Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1087313",
"question": "Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x086ffc767cb5b55cedc4a98f7c2e4b279f5f805ed93929493054334ebc74af1f",
"slug": "will-us-unemployment-reach-at-least-10pt0-in-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-01-10T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "4492.68759",
"startDate": "2026-01-02T18:54:51.410606Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/march-unemployment-rate-wpcB-Q7lTi_r.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/march-unemployment-rate-wpcB-Q7lTi_r.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThe relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time. \n\nThe resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.\n\nNote: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.042\", \"0.958\"]",
"volume": "19762.552390999994",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-02T15:13:13.75651Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:39:26.862031Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "10.0%",
"groupItemThreshold": "4",
"questionID": "0x0128ec303e994434ccc9353b8b5280c5ac79068c612ed7d712a155b5917ba349",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 19762.552390999994,
"liquidityNum": 4492.68759,
"endDateIso": "2026-01-10",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-02",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 25.16986,
"volume1wk": 683.6161239999999,
"volume1mo": 6965.644775999998,
"volume1yr": 19762.552391,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"110104517594305701703368847857137645764627692040793896777571821383476400421969\", \"47660382248323806616898656816056360359404116768505110471179908058200918754601\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 25.16986,
"volume1wkClob": 683.6161239999999,
"volume1moClob": 6965.644775999998,
"volume1yrClob": 19762.552391,
"volumeClob": 19762.552390999994,
"liquidityClob": 4492.68759,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-02T18:54:29Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8266075036122748,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "52986",
"conditionId": "0x086ffc767cb5b55cedc4a98f7c2e4b279f5f805ed93929493054334ebc74af1f",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 3,
"startDate": "2026-01-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.004,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.0045,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0175,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.0465,
"lastTradePrice": 0.04,
"bestBid": 0.04,
"bestAsk": 0.044,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-02T18:53:59.527159Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "102964",
"label": "NFP",
"slug": "nfp",
"createdAt": "2025-12-16T16:18:12.825123Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:26:22.801878Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "1624",
"label": "unemployment",
"slug": "unemployment",
"publishedAt": "2024-03-11 22:41:09.266+00",
"createdAt": "2024-03-11T22:41:09.272Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:22.001828Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "102000",
"label": "Macro Indicators",
"slug": "macro-indicators",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-26T21:57:53.430333Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:23:42.224247Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "102965",
"label": "nonfarm payroll",
"slug": "nonfarm-payroll",
"createdAt": "2025-12-16T16:18:12.942636Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:01.945302Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100328",
"label": "Economy",
"slug": "economy",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2024-08-05T05:34:54.235643Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:18:21.302993Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100765",
"label": "bls",
"slug": "bls",
"createdAt": "2024-10-08T14:42:58.082638Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:32:44.511085Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "The U.S. unemployment rate edged down to 4.3 percent in March 2026 per the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report, with nonfarm payrolls adding a stronger-than-expected 178,000 jobs amid gains in health care, construction, and transportation, offsetting prior federal government declines and February's weakness. This rebound has eased immediate recession fears, though trader consensus via FOMC March projections holds the year-end rate steady at a median 4.4 percent, with CBO forecasting a 2026 peak of 4.6 percent amid moderating labor demand signals like falling job openings. Key swing factors include ongoing inflation trajectory and Fed policy; watch the April jobs report on May 8 and weekly initial claims for shifts in momentum.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:33:39.766Z"
}
}- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?Vol 83.0KLiq 6.0KEnd Jan 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?Vol 179.5KLiq 2.7KEnd Jan 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?Vol 49.4KLiq 2.5KEnd Jan 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?Vol 16.9KLiq 2.9KEnd Jan 10, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?Vol 19.8KLiq 4.5KEnd Jan 10, 2026OpenOrder book