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How many 7.0 or above earthquakes by June 30?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Ticker
how-many-7pt0-or-above-earthquakes-by-june-30
Volume
1.8M
24h volume
987
1w volume
251.2K
Open interest
48.2K
Liquidity
40.8K
Liquidity CLOB
40.8K
Start
Dec 4, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 4, 2025
Event ID
97361
Slug
how-many-7pt0-or-above-earthquakes-by-june-30
Markets
9
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 86.5% implied probability to eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, anchored by USGS confirmation of seven such events already in 2026 through early April. This positioning reflects the global baseline of approximately 16 M7+ quakes annually, predominantly along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, where recent activity surged: a M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1, M7.3 near Vanuatu on March 30, and M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 elevated the count. Seismic release follows a Poisson process with clusters possible due to tectonic stress accumulation, though exact timing remains unpredictable. USGS real-time catalog updates will track progress toward resolution criteria, with heightened monitoring in active regions.",
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}- Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?Vol 529.5KLiq 14.3KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
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