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How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026
Volume
821.6K
24h volume
18.6K
1w volume
131.7K
Open interest
9.6K
Liquidity
90.5K
Liquidity CLOB
90.5K
Start
Nov 13, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 13, 2025
Event ID
79932
Slug
how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026
Markets
16
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 7 countries at 32.4% implied probability, closely trailed by 8 at 24%, driven by confirmed U.S. airstrikes and operations in Somalia, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, Iran, and Venezuela through early April 2026, plus emerging SOUTHCOM kinetic strikes against narco-traffickers in Latin America. Recent catalysts include CENTCOM's April 5 continuation of strikes on Iranian targets post-F-15E aircrew rescue, AFRICOM's April 6-7 al-Shabaab and ISIS-Somalia hits, and SOUTHCOM's April 11 lethal actions, elevating the baseline amid the 2026 Iran conflict and persistent counterterrorism. The tight contest reflects debate over qualifying low-level engagements versus major escalations, with de-escalation signals or operational drawdowns potentially consolidating at 6-7, while proxy flare-ups, new authorizations, or expanded Iran proxies could surge toward 9+.",
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}
}- Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?Vol 5.5KLiq 9.7KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Vol 14.0KLiq 3.7KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
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- Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?Vol 41.6KLiq 7.1KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?Vol 113.7KLiq 8.3KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 1 country in 2026?Vol 60.4KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- Will the US strike 3 countries in 2026?Vol 58.9KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- Will the US strike 2 countries in 2026?Vol 31.1KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- Will the US strike 0 countries in 2026?Vol 9.5KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?Vol —Liq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- Will the US strike 5 countries in 2026?Vol —Liq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed