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How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026
Volume
760.3K
24h volume
24.2K
1w volume
147.7K
Open interest
10.8K
Liquidity
92.0K
Liquidity CLOB
92.0K
Start
Nov 13, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 13, 2025
Event ID
79932
Slug
how-many-different-countries-will-the-us-strike-in-2026
Markets
16
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket implies 7-9 countries as the most likely for US military actions in 2026, with 7 leading at 30.6% amid confirmed airstrikes and operations so far in Somalia (AFRICOM surges, including March targets against al-Shabaab and ISIS), Iran (ongoing CENTCOM strikes as recent as April 5 following February escalation with Israel), Syria (January ISIS raids), Venezuela (January raid capturing Nicolás Maduro), and likely routine counterterrorism in Iraq and Yemen, totaling around six. The tight race reflects uncertainty over nine months left, including potential resumptions in Yemen against Houthis, additions like Nigeria, or expansions amid Iran de-escalation signals versus proxy escalations. Separation could arise from major provocations prompting strikes in North Korea or the Philippines, diplomatic ceasefires reducing counts, or verified pauses in ongoing campaigns.",
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}- Will the US strike 7 countries in 2026?Vol 4.7KLiq 8.4KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Vol 12.6KLiq 7.3KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?Vol 9.1KLiq 9.3KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?Vol 417.6KLiq 12.6KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 10 countries in 2026?Vol 11.5KLiq 9.7KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026?Vol 8.2KLiq 8.1KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 15 or more countries in 2026?Vol 77.9KLiq 14.5KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?Vol 7.3KLiq 7.0KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 12 countries in 2026?Vol 10.1KLiq 7.3KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?Vol 41.5KLiq 7.4KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US strike 1 country in 2026?Vol 60.4KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- Will the US strike 3 countries in 2026?Vol 58.9KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- Will the US strike 2 countries in 2026?Vol 31.1KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- Will the US strike 0 countries in 2026?Vol 9.5KLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?Vol —Liq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- Will the US strike 5 countries in 2026?Vol —Liq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed