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How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ticker
how-many-large-volcano-eruption-vei-4-in-2026-657
Volume
679.5K
24h volume
152
1w volume
12.8K
Open interest
12.0K
Liquidity
13.6K
Liquidity CLOB
13.6K
Start
Jan 2, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2027
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 2, 2026
Event ID
135338
Slug
how-many-large-volcano-eruption-vei-4-in-2026-657
Markets
6
Raw event data
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}- Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?Vol 238.2KLiq 5.6KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?Vol 394.0KLiq 2.3KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
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