
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
insurrection-act-invoked-by
Volume
1.0M
24h volume
211
1w volume
96.7K
Open interest
55.1K
Liquidity
31.4K
Liquidity CLOB
31.4K
Start
Jan 6, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 6, 2026
Event ID
145985
Slug
insurrection-act-invoked-by
Markets
5
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"context_description": "President Trump has not invoked the Insurrection Act as of April 6, 2026, despite ongoing discussions, including advisor Stephen Miller's recent advocacy for its use in immigration enforcement operations reported April 5. Threats intensified in January amid Minneapolis protests against ICE actions, echoing a January 2025 southern border national emergency proclamation that referenced but did not activate the law—a rare Posse Comitatus exception allowing domestic military deployment. Congressional reform bills like the Insurrection Act of 2025 (H.R.4076, S.2070), introduced mid-2025, remain stalled in committees, aiming to narrow vague presidential authority. Trader consensus weighs escalation risks from protests or mass deportations against legal challenges, judicial blocks, and legislative hurdles.",
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