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Iran military action against Israel on...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
iran-military-action-against-israel-on-628
Volume
343.2K
24h volume
60.1K
1w volume
198.5K
Open interest
63.3K
Liquidity
43.7K
Liquidity CLOB
43.7K
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Event ID
303678
Slug
iran-military-action-against-israel-on-628
Markets
30
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran has conducted multiple ballistic missile barrages against Israel, including a cluster munition-equipped missile on April 4 and further salvos reported on April 5. These direct attacks, numbering over 400 waves in recent weeks, reflect sustained escalation despite degraded Iranian missile capabilities from counterstrikes. On April 6, Iran rejected a U.S.-proposed ceasefire, prompting amplified threats from Washington—including intensified strikes announced by Defense Secretary Hegseth—and Israeli confirmation of eliminating IRGC intelligence chief Majid Khademi in Tehran. Traders eye a looming Strait of Hormuz deadline and potential diplomatic breakthroughs or further retaliations as key catalysts for near-term military action.",
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}- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?Vol 82.2KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?Vol 70.6KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?Vol 50.2KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?Vol 44.9KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?Vol 41.2KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?Vol 27.4KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?Vol 13.1KLiq 14.2KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?Vol 6.8KLiq 8.6KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?Vol 3.1KLiq 12.7KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Vol 3.7KLiq 8.1KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 11, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 12, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 13, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 14, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 15, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 16, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 17, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 18, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 19, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 20, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 21, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 22, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 23, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 24, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 25, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 26, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 27, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 28, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 29, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 30, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book