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Iran military action against Israel on...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
iran-military-action-against-israel-on-628
Volume
1.5M
24h volume
13.4K
1w volume
249.7K
Open interest
81.5K
Liquidity
—
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Closed
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Event ID
303678
Slug
iran-military-action-against-israel-on-628
Markets
30
Raw event data
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"context_description": "A fragile two-week ceasefire, agreed April 8 and brokered by Pakistan between Iran, the US, and Israel, anchors trader consensus on low near-term probabilities for direct Iranian military action against Israel, despite high volume exceeding $1 million. Failed negotiations in Islamabad as of April 12, coupled with the US enforcing a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz today—which Iran deems \"piracy\"—heighten escalation risks, yet no new Iranian strikes have materialized. Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, labeled ceasefire violations by Tehran, prompted IRGC threats of \"crushing retaliation,\" but suppressed Iranian missile forces from prior US-Israeli strikes limit capabilities. Ongoing proxy clashes and diplomatic signals could tip balances ahead of the April 22 ceasefire expiry.",
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}- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?Vol 577.8KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?Vol 82.2KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 2, 2026?Vol 70.6KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026?Vol 51.0KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 4, 2026?Vol 50.2KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?Vol 44.9KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026?Vol 41.2KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 1, 2026?Vol 27.4KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?Vol 278.2KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?Vol 256.6KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 11, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 12, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 13, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 14, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 15, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 16, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 17, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 18, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 19, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 20, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 21, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 22, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 23, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 24, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 25, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 26, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 27, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 28, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 29, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 30, 2026?Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book