Israel military action against Gaza on...?

Name: Israel military action against Gaza on...?
Start: 2026-03-24T17:14:04.118642Z
End: 2026-04-30T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
israel-military-action-against-gaza-on
Volume
361.5K
24h volume
168.4K
1w volume
216.5K
Open interest
59.7K
Liquidity
36.2K
Liquidity CLOB
36.2K
Start
Mar 24, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 24, 2026
Event ID
303643
Slug
israel-military-action-against-gaza-on
Markets
Tags
strike palestine Gaza hamas Middle East Israel Geopolitics
Raw event data
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      "question": "Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?",
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      "question": "Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 19, 2026?",
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    "context_description": "Amid a fragile Gaza ceasefire established in late February amid the broader Israel-Iran war, IDF forces conducted a targeted airstrike in central Gaza on April 6, eliminating a Hamas operative involved in prior attacks, while separate incidents—including fire on a WHO vehicle killing a staffer and a strike near a school killing at least 10 Palestinians—prompted mutual accusations of violations. The IDF reports 22 Palestinian breaches since the truce began, as Hamas rejects disarmament without full Israeli withdrawal guarantees, straining U.S.-brokered talks on next-phase implementation. Traders monitor escalation risks from ceasefire non-compliance, ongoing Iran hostilities, and potential mediation breakthroughs, with low-level military actions persisting despite de-escalation signals.",
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Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 5, 2026?
Vol 134.4KLiq 0End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?
Vol 76.0KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?
Vol 39.3KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?
Vol 56.0KLiq 10.5KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?
Vol 2.0KLiq 11.8KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?
Vol 305Liq 8.5KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?
Vol 835Liq 2.0KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 8, 2026?
Vol 906Liq 3.5KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 1, 2026?
Vol 29.1KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 2, 2026?
Vol 22.9KLiq —End Apr 30, 2026Closed
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 11, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 12, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 13, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 14, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 15, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 16, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 17, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 18, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 19, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 20, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 21, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 22, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 23, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 24, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 25, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 26, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 27, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 28, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 29, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 30, 2026?
Vol 0Liq 0End Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book