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Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Ticker
israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by
Volume
3.3M
24h volume
377.5K
1w volume
2.8M
Open interest
538.2K
Liquidity
191.2K
Liquidity CLOB
191.2K
Start
Mar 3, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 3, 2026
Event ID
242420
Slug
israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by
Markets
4
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war, trader consensus implies a 56% probability of an official Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, driven by U.S.-brokered direct talks between Israel and Lebanon scheduled in Washington on April 15, focusing on Hezbollah disarmament rather than an immediate truce. Israel's explicit exclusion of Hezbollah from the recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, coupled with intensified airstrikes killing at least 10 in southern Lebanon on April 11 and Hezbollah's rocket strike on Safed April 10, has tempered near-term odds to 11% by April 15 and 29% by April 30. Hezbollah's rejection of the negotiations underscores persistent escalation risks, though diplomatic pressure from President Trump could catalyze progress.",
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}- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Vol 241.0KLiq 92.5KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Vol 1.9MLiq 70.5KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Vol 689.3KLiq 29.0KEnd Apr 15, 2026OpenOrder book
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Vol 376.7KLiq —End Jun 30, 2026Closed