Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

Name: Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
Start: 2026-03-03T00:43:26.919457Z
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the Israel and Hezbollah, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the Israeli Government and Hezbollah. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Ticker
israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by
Volume
451.7K
24h volume
4.2K
1w volume
31.8K
Open interest
32.0K
Liquidity
34.5K
Liquidity CLOB
34.5K
Start
Mar 3, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 3, 2026
Event ID
242420
Slug
israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-by
Markets
Tags
Iran Israel Geopolitics Iran Ceasefire Lebanon
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Ongoing military escalations in the 2026 Lebanon war, sparked March 2 between Israel and Hezbollah, have driven Polymarket traders to price a ceasefire by June 30 at 43% implied probability, reflecting skepticism of near-term de-escalation. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's March 29 order to expand the southern Lebanon security buffer zone, coupled with fresh airstrikes killing at least 15 Lebanese—including a forces official—and Hezbollah rocket barrages injuring 16 Israelis as recently as April 5, underscore persistent violations of the 2024 ceasefire terms mandating Hezbollah's withdrawal north of the Litani River and disarmament under UN Resolution 1701. Failed Paris talks on March 15, where Israel rejected proposals without Hezbollah disarmament, highlight diplomatic stalemate amid Lebanese army deployment challenges and Iranian backing, with no major summits scheduled but UNIFIL monitoring ongoing.",
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