
Prediction market · Polymarket
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Ticker
los-angeles-mayoral-election-117
Volume
862.8K
24h volume
2.6K
1w volume
52.7K
Open interest
26.9K
Liquidity
126.0K
Liquidity CLOB
126.0K
Start
Oct 9, 2025
End
Jun 2, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Oct 9, 2025
Event ID
57111
Slug
los-angeles-mayoral-election-117
Markets
15
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"context_description": "In the closely contested Los Angeles mayoral primary set for June 2, trader consensus favors City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 46% implied probability, driven by her late-entry surge as a progressive challenger and a controversial March 30 Loyola Marymount poll showing her leading incumbent Karen Bass 33%-17% amid high unfavorability for Bass (56% in Berkeley IGS survey) over homelessness and Palisades Fire response. Bass holds 31.5% on market despite business endorsements and leads in some polls like UCLA Luskin's April 3 survey (25%, with 40% undecided), reflecting voter volatility. Reality star Spencer Pratt's 15% share stems from his unexpected 11-14% polling post-fire, though recent residency eligibility questions cloud his path, while others trail in a fragmented field where top-two advance.",
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