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Maduro Prison Time?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
maduro-prison-time
Volume
460.6K
24h volume
3.4K
1w volume
15.1K
Open interest
33.0K
Liquidity
68.5K
Liquidity CLOB
68.5K
Start
Jan 4, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2027
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 4, 2026
Event ID
141230
Slug
maduro-prison-time-527
Markets
5
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on the \"Maduro Prison Time?\" market reflects Nicolás Maduro's ongoing US federal prosecution for narco-terrorism, drug trafficking conspiracy, and arms violations, unsealed in a January 2026 indictment following his capture and removal from power, with charges carrying potential life sentences driving the 42.5% implied probability for 60+ years. Recent March 2026 Brooklyn federal court hearings saw a judge reject defense motions to dismiss and deny Venezuelan funds for legal costs, bolstering case momentum amid pre-trial detention at the Metropolitan Detention Center. No prison time at 25.5% accounts for prosecutorial hurdles, immunity claims, and diplomatic normalization between the US and Venezuela's interim government last week, while shorter sentences trail due to precedents like 40-year terms for similar cartel leaders. Sentencing awaits trial outcome.",
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}- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?Vol 30.3KLiq 14.2KEnd Dec 31, 2027OpenOrder book
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Vol 361.3KLiq 24.6KEnd Dec 31, 2027OpenOrder book
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?Vol 27.4KLiq 7.6KEnd Dec 31, 2027OpenOrder book
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?Vol 13.4KLiq 9.4KEnd Dec 31, 2027OpenOrder book
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?Vol 28.2KLiq 8.2KEnd Dec 31, 2027OpenOrder book