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Maduro Prison Time?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
maduro-prison-time
Volume
488.2K
24h volume
991
1w volume
26.5K
Open interest
31.6K
Liquidity
78.2K
Liquidity CLOB
78.2K
Start
Jan 4, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2027
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 4, 2026
Event ID
141230
Slug
maduro-prison-time-527
Markets
5
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on the \"Maduro Prison Time?\" market reflects deep uncertainty in Nicolás Maduro's ongoing U.S. federal case for narcoterrorism, drug trafficking conspiracy, and weapons charges, stemming from his January 3, 2026, arrest via U.S. military operation in Caracas and subsequent New York indictment. No prison time leads narrowly at 35.5% over 60+ months at 32%, driven by robust prosecution evidence against the former Venezuelan president—now detained pretrial—but countered by defense motions claiming head-of-state immunity, jurisdictional challenges, and the narcoterrorism statute's limited trial successes. Recent March 26 pretrial hearing saw a judge uphold charges while questioning U.S. blocks on Venezuelan funding for Maduro's defense amid his party's interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez. Trial scheduling, evidentiary rulings, or plea negotiations could sharply shift probabilities.",
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}- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?Vol 366.9KLiq 39.6KEnd Dec 31, 2027OpenOrder book
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?Vol 31.3KLiq 9.6KEnd Dec 31, 2027OpenOrder book
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?Vol 14.4KLiq 11.0KEnd Dec 31, 2027OpenOrder book
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?Vol 28.8KLiq 10.7KEnd Dec 31, 2027OpenOrder book
- Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?Vol 46.8KLiq 8.1KEnd Dec 31, 2027OpenOrder book