Loading event…
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30
Volume
1.1M
24h volume
3.3K
1w volume
64.0K
Open interest
226.8K
Liquidity
62.5K
Liquidity CLOB
62.5K
Start
Jan 4, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 4, 2026
Event ID
143567
Slug
miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30
Markets
3
Raw event data
{
"id": "143567",
"ticker": "miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30",
"slug": "miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30",
"title": "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nFor the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. \n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-01-04T18:52:07.791073Z",
"creationDate": "2026-01-04T18:52:07.79107Z",
"endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-iran-by-june-30-96SHtIpplmhV.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-iran-by-june-30-96SHtIpplmhV.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 62509.99,
"volume": 1070227.6304809996,
"openInterest": 226837.34040400002,
"createdAt": "2026-01-04T18:49:14.097226Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T22:06:12.404176Z",
"competitive": 0.9951238929246691,
"volume24hr": 3299.3552680000003,
"volume1wk": 63972.86210099998,
"volume1mo": 313683.34329499985,
"volume1yr": 648971.7067569991,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 62509.99,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 51,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1117222",
"question": "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?",
"conditionId": "0x115374e9cb26f7c375f35cdfec08167024dbfc5a20f339806d81236ed25ab781",
"slug": "miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-december-31-113-682",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "36068.1186",
"startDate": "2026-01-05T22:57:50.69Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-iran-by-june-30-96SHtIpplmhV.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-iran-by-june-30-96SHtIpplmhV.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.57\", \"0.43\"]",
"volume": "134920.72492400007",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-05T22:31:46.449723Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T22:05:56.004719Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "December 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "2",
"questionID": "0x7711d3d16143b10370c5171f1e8aae5f2b3e9d19f19e193086fd567d4ba0a07c",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 134920.72492400007,
"liquidityNum": 36068.1186,
"endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-05",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 1198.1317030000002,
"volume1wk": 28964.956613999995,
"volume1mo": 81135.97911999999,
"volume1yr": 134920.724924,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"19521088970261367195201520366397988280996640521852307176239892442414361500298\", \"72095897215599895681149701722606364539867186803340437295210002622844727571825\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 1198.1317030000002,
"volume1wkClob": 28964.956613999995,
"volume1moClob": 81135.97911999999,
"volume1yrClob": 134920.724924,
"volumeClob": 134920.72492400007,
"liquidityClob": 36068.1186,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-05T22:57:29Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9951238929246691,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "104431",
"conditionId": "0x115374e9cb26f7c375f35cdfec08167024dbfc5a20f339806d81236ed25ab781",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 10,
"startDate": "2026-03-17",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 100,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.005,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.04,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.1,
"lastTradePrice": 0.58,
"bestBid": 0.56,
"bestAsk": 0.58,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-05T22:57:00.207708Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1106634",
"question": "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?",
"conditionId": "0x119db6dda44f109bcdc2ec5e1d9cb8c21fa1a7e66489f59b1190fdfb25c0d515",
"slug": "miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-935-772",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "26141.5565",
"startDate": "2026-01-04T18:50:56.877Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-iran-by-june-30-96SHtIpplmhV.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-iran-by-june-30-96SHtIpplmhV.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.26\", \"0.74\"]",
"volume": "514050.98183299927",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-04T18:49:14.941204Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T22:05:18.632957Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "June 30",
"groupItemThreshold": "1",
"questionID": "0x267721812142786d34ce937875e339df3b3dcac631178aa2b693f0b6894584ee",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 514050.98183299927,
"liquidityNum": 26141.5565,
"endDateIso": "2026-06-30",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-04",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 2101.223565,
"volume1wk": 35007.90548699998,
"volume1mo": 232388.29417499984,
"volume1yr": 514050.9818329991,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"39613364913865315931514386378018944414998874795564653895884416470707478023814\", \"58505293773838465935116525784998147381307821161678906360166240694093964623719\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 2101.223565,
"volume1wkClob": 35007.90548699998,
"volume1moClob": 232388.29417499984,
"volume1yrClob": 514050.9818329991,
"volumeClob": 514050.98183299927,
"liquidityClob": 26141.5565,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-04T18:50:35Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.9455370650529501,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "53155",
"conditionId": "0x119db6dda44f109bcdc2ec5e1d9cb8c21fa1a7e66489f59b1190fdfb25c0d515",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 20,
"startDate": "2026-01-04",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.03,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.07,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.205,
"lastTradePrice": 0.25,
"bestBid": 0.25,
"bestAsk": 0.27,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-04T18:50:04.573727Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1447508",
"question": "Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?",
"conditionId": "0xbbdff003595b6febaef4b6cdfef66bf134c861e4c7c37f57099950ce1355e1a1",
"slug": "miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-march-31-971-121",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-02-26T14:33:58.418Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-iran-by-june-30-96SHtIpplmhV.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-iran-by-june-30-96SHtIpplmhV.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be President of Cuba for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Miguel Díaz-Canel and the government of Cuba; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "421255.92372400034",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-02-26T14:30:14.124639Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-02T06:37:10.829672Z",
"closedTime": "2026-04-01 06:37:21+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "March 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0x26ff78da9efea694aeb17ca04e755cfb346eb206fafc1fbf4d1e9fcd50a56a57",
"umaEndDate": "2026-04-01T06:37:21Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 421255.92372400034,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-02-26",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"92118872070373671366744616970684613695613216147688927626735461123847867407568\", \"30208669421611020410731490502450878259522137097238377373048375856058281715488\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volumeClob": 421255.92372400034,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-02-26T14:32:52Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "123440",
"conditionId": "0xbbdff003595b6febaef4b6cdfef66bf134c861e4c7c37f57099950ce1355e1a1",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 0.001,
"startDate": "2026-04-01",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"oneHourPriceChange": 0.05,
"lastTradePrice": 0.001,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-02-26T14:31:37.777741Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "246",
"label": "Venezuela",
"slug": "venezuela",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:43:20.341+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:43:20.356Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:41.386838Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "126",
"label": "Trump",
"slug": "trump",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "102868",
"label": "Cuba",
"slug": "cuba",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-11-18T16:46:56.92821Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-12T15:58:00.346258Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, who also serves as First Secretary of the Communist Party, reaffirmed his commitment to leadership in an April 9 NBC interview, rejecting U.S. demands for resignation amid escalating sanctions and Trump administration rhetoric for regime change. Widespread blackouts in March—some nationwide, leaving millions without power for days—sparked protests in cities like Santiago de Cuba and Morón over food shortages and energy deficits, echoing the 2024–2026 unrest wave. No National Assembly votes, party congresses, or official succession signals have emerged, with Díaz-Canel's term extending to 2028. Ongoing economic pressures and potential U.S.-Cuba talks without political preconditions remain key variables for any leadership shift.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-14T21:35:24.143Z"
}
}- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?Vol 134.9KLiq 36.1KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Vol 514.1KLiq 26.1KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31?Vol 421.3KLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed