
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ticker
naim-qassem-out-as-hezbollahs-secretary-general-by-december-31
Volume
427.6K
24h volume
3.7K
1w volume
27.0K
Open interest
15.1K
Liquidity
32.7K
Liquidity CLOB
32.7K
Start
Nov 24, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 24, 2025
Event ID
89461
Slug
naim-qassem-out-as-hezbollahs-secretary-general-by-december-31
Markets
4
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"context_description": "Naim Qassem remains Hezbollah's secretary-general, appointed by the Shura Council in October 2024 following Hassan Nasrallah's assassination, with no verified replacement or resignation since amid the group's ongoing military confrontation with Israel. Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Israel Katz, recently warned on April 3, 2026, that Qassem faces an \"extraordinarily heavy price\" for rocket attacks, while IDF strikes have eliminated other senior commanders like Hajj Yusuf Ismail Hashem last week, heightening risks to his leadership. Qassem's March statements vowing sustained resistance reflect organizational continuity, but escalation signals or Shura Council decisions could prompt change; trader consensus weighs assassination threats against Hezbollah's resilience in active conflict.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:33:38.834Z"
}
}