
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Naim Qassem ceases to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Naim Qassem will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Hezbollah’s secretary-general within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ticker
naim-qassem-out-as-hezbollahs-secretary-general-by-december-31
Volume
651.0K
24h volume
6.0K
1w volume
214.9K
Open interest
55.7K
Liquidity
33.6K
Liquidity CLOB
33.6K
Start
Nov 24, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 24, 2025
Event ID
89461
Slug
naim-qassem-out-as-hezbollahs-secretary-general-by-december-31
Markets
4
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"context_description": "Naim Qassem remains Hezbollah's secretary-general, actively leading amid escalating Israel-Lebanon border tensions, as evidenced by his April 13 televised speech urging Lebanon's government to cancel planned Washington talks with Israel, which he deemed a ploy to disarm the group. Israeli airstrikes have intensified, eliminating Qassem's nephew and personal secretary on April 9, alongside other senior commanders, fueling speculation of further targeting, though no verified action against Qassem himself has occurred. Ongoing military exchanges and Israeli warnings of imminent operations against Hezbollah leadership sustain trader focus on potential replacement by April 30, with diplomatic developments or major strikes as key catalysts ahead.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-15T01:34:01.966Z"
}
}