
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by
Volume
2.6M
24h volume
1.6K
1w volume
1.5M
Open interest
79.9K
Liquidity
20.5K
Liquidity CLOB
20.5K
Start
Jan 3, 2026
End
Jan 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 3, 2026
Event ID
140724
Slug
nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by
Markets
3
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"context_description": "Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center since his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. forces in Caracas amid charges of narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons offenses, to which he and wife Cilia Flores have pleaded not guilty. His March 26 court appearance in New York featured arguments for dismissal and debates over Venezuela funding his defense, while prosecutors allege he plundered national wealth. In Venezuela, acting President Delcy Rodríguez's term has extended beyond 90 days with U.S. sanction relief, alongside political prisoner releases signaling transition stability. Traders eye upcoming hearings, plea possibilities, diplomatic pressures from Venezuelan officials demanding release, and trial timelines as key factors for potential bail, acquittal, or extradition outcomes.",
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