
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by
Volume
2.6M
24h volume
5.0K
1w volume
1.5M
Open interest
73.3K
Liquidity
21.8K
Liquidity CLOB
21.8K
Start
Jan 3, 2026
End
Jan 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 3, 2026
Event ID
140724
Slug
nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by
Markets
3
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"context_description": "Nicolás Maduro remains in pretrial detention at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center following his January 3, 2026, capture by U.S. special forces in Caracas on longstanding narcoterrorism and drug trafficking charges from a 2020 indictment. He and wife Cilia Flores pleaded not guilty on January 5, with their March 26 federal court hearing before Judge Alvin Hellerstein yielding no trial date, dismissal denial, and disputes over Venezuelan asset access for legal fees. Trader consensus reflects low release odds amid strong U.S. prosecution, special administrative measures, and no bail granted despite international protests like Roger Waters' April 14 rally. Upcoming trial scheduling and potential diplomatic pressures could influence outcomes, while Venezuela's interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez manages post-arrest transitions.",
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