
Prediction market · Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Ticker
quebec-general-election-winner
Volume
422.0K
24h volume
2.6K
1w volume
28.1K
Open interest
36.6K
Liquidity
116.0K
Liquidity CLOB
116.0K
Start
Dec 2, 2025
End
Oct 5, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 2, 2025
Event ID
95203
Slug
quebec-general-election-winner
Markets
33
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"context_description": "Parti Québécois leads trader consensus at 57.5% to win the October 2026 Quebec general election, reflecting seat projections like 338Canada's estimate of a PQ majority (63 seats needed out of 125) due to efficient vote distribution in first-past-the-post ridings, despite tight popular vote polls. Recent Léger surveys (April 6) show PLQ at 33% slightly ahead of PQ's 32%, with CAQ at 13% amid its post-Legault collapse—Premier François Legault resigned January 14 over record-low approval ratings, and new CAQ leader Christine Fréchette was elected April 12. PLQ's 34% odds stem from gains under leader Charles Milliard (acclaimed February), while CAQ's 8% highlights ongoing caucus turmoil and by-election losses. Québec solidaire, PCQ, and PVQ trail far behind at under 1% each.",
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