Loading event…
Russia nuclear test by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
russia-nuclear-test-by
Volume
1.3M
24h volume
10
1w volume
24.8K
Open interest
2.0K
Liquidity
29.5K
Liquidity CLOB
29.5K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73923
Slug
russia-nuclear-test-by
Markets
6
Raw event data
{
"id": "73923",
"ticker": "russia-nuclear-test-by",
"slug": "russia-nuclear-test-by",
"title": "Russia nuclear test by...?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2025-11-05T18:16:48.987253Z",
"creationDate": "2025-11-05T18:16:48.98725Z",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-nuclear-test-by-n0ZGKxWlxHAp.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-nuclear-test-by-n0ZGKxWlxHAp.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 29495.02111,
"volume": 1326413.3227390046,
"openInterest": 2048.434254,
"createdAt": "2025-11-05T18:07:57.29366Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:39:59.340835Z",
"competitive": 0.8679802100512108,
"volume24hr": 9.73,
"volume1wk": 24827.065233999998,
"volume1mo": 76566.091813,
"volume1yr": 111476.769738,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 29495.02111,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 7,
"markets": [
{
"id": "666718",
"question": "Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025?",
"conditionId": "0x4cee84284b7b630d17d0a1644fa26b04790bc9cfd43c1a6de6ce87fa26c451b0",
"slug": "will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-november-30-2025",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2025-11-05T18:13:59.677853Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-november-30-2025-OpwtpDca18W0.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-november-30-2025-OpwtpDca18W0.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "63538.931163",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2025-11-05T18:07:57.988143Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:46:36.605601Z",
"closedTime": "2025-12-01 07:29:42+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "November 30",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0xaca46e7a11a5e45d7455f2f300fa677ac59de29718b8adb26f5dca3bed30b477",
"umaEndDate": "2025-12-01T07:29:42Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 63538.931163,
"startDateIso": "2025-11-05",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume1wk": 20122.858332,
"volume1mo": 63538.93116300001,
"volume1yr": 63538.93116300001,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"100626690361942569827356129010276163440132604179562962198954111693154561599442\", \"21862331534257061570191750312633611968460296414667332862283757870775182430564\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume1wkClob": 20122.858332,
"volume1moClob": 63538.93116300001,
"volume1yrClob": 63538.93116300001,
"volumeClob": 63538.931163,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-11-05T18:13:37Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 100,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.0015,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.004,
"lastTradePrice": 1,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2025-11-05T18:13:05.984491Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "666719",
"question": "Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025?",
"conditionId": "0x7d8558a5749492f844be4d48d47c1e5e74f95c303f1bfaa7c210f3e37e2e83c6",
"slug": "will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-december-31-2025",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2025-11-05T18:13:59.424224Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-december-31-2025-ymn1bxDcLxGz.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-december-31-2025-ymn1bxDcLxGz.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "46946.965228",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2025-11-05T18:07:58.435851Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:46:36.678001Z",
"closedTime": "2026-01-01 09:31:27+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "December 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "1",
"questionID": "0xe0be6e4c6bbc97ca2e83d4caaec1f8c895f0155da9bc7fedfc9c32f0c4f8a3d1",
"umaEndDate": "2026-01-01T09:31:27Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 46946.965228,
"startDateIso": "2025-11-05",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume1wk": 3713.3335549999997,
"volume1mo": 12036.287303000001,
"volume1yr": 46946.965227999994,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"23340375772131220008905404117289892949757218793711044075403533067412600208011\", \"70109805788941117318200131002201093035501502058934666029069713017283779929902\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume1wkClob": 3713.3335549999997,
"volume1moClob": 12036.287303000001,
"volume1yrClob": 46946.965227999994,
"volumeClob": 46946.965228,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-11-05T18:13:37Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 100,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.001,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.004,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.0165,
"lastTradePrice": 1,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2025-11-05T18:13:05.987987Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "666720",
"question": "Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x07d66d391c47270f2a50bdac6df860da851ff14d2af39c5103a73ed684ab188d",
"slug": "will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-march-31-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-03-31T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2025-11-05T18:14:00.188Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-march-31-2026-pHHzfmzEI4kv.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-march-31-2026-pHHzfmzEI4kv.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "1214087.4072490046",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2025-11-05T18:07:58.964171Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-01T18:43:57.527412Z",
"closedTime": "2026-04-01 07:29:49+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "March 31, 2026",
"groupItemThreshold": "2",
"questionID": "0x43315e954457db86fa0e96dea64d9fbeeffb5345eb5e7075bf13043de1764152",
"umaEndDate": "2026-04-01T07:29:49Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 1214087.4072490046,
"endDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"startDateIso": "2025-11-05",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"82683979058939029491628349751182173790208191319546619396531609736920731322596\", \"81804886071928664577581750280178012000583078619985710016160113195814217841456\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volumeClob": 1214087.4072490046,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-11-05T18:13:37Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 20,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.001,
"oneHourPriceChange": 0.001,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0035,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.028,
"lastTradePrice": 0.001,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2025-11-05T18:13:05.986229Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1796338",
"question": "Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x24bdb58c26296a162238610b89251b649b8590b7e0ea1fd1d27d652ebb41cded",
"slug": "will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-september-30-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "9072.1245",
"startDate": "2026-03-31T19:35:50.021181Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-march-31-2026-pHHzfmzEI4kv.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-march-31-2026-pHHzfmzEI4kv.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.09\", \"0.91\"]",
"volume": "339.43242",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-30T21:05:25.705864Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:39:32.852685Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "September 30, 2026",
"groupItemThreshold": "4",
"questionID": "0xc197a4cd68e5c71ce8b1304dcef6da3967acdc229eb5d054773bb28f030780c9",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 339.43242,
"liquidityNum": 9072.1245,
"endDateIso": "2026-09-30",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"51708028847655794696753905584851331451433642869893216204192282507142456164604\", \"59740426322089343460840885963717702455193837480154378824910628138581852249636\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volumeClob": 339.43242,
"liquidityClob": 9072.1245,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-31T19:34:45Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.856091088091773,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "123175",
"conditionId": "0x24bdb58c26296a162238610b89251b649b8590b7e0ea1fd1d27d652ebb41cded",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 5,
"startDate": "2026-04-01",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 50,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"lastTradePrice": 0.08,
"bestBid": 0.08,
"bestAsk": 0.1,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-31T19:33:29.606892Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1796381",
"question": "Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?",
"conditionId": "0xeb19bf61af8fc67a720c7a5e5ee7006753ab5f8713d74fa567096aff4535d6b6",
"slug": "will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-december-31-2026-75zh",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "9860.7513",
"startDate": "2026-03-31T19:35:48.918712Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-march-31-2026-pHHzfmzEI4kv.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-march-31-2026-pHHzfmzEI4kv.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.11\", \"0.89\"]",
"volume": "509.713332",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-30T21:05:48.339783Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:39:07.181358Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "December 31, 2026",
"groupItemThreshold": "5",
"questionID": "0xb065ea231887e0b815355b4a3069f27ae88b46767bde5094e7e8fcad8c26bfac",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 509.713332,
"liquidityNum": 9860.7513,
"endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"110624462283135141078461383597779908308957081423102507013081742419592897804151\", \"72901511048198459738310807861546713118548664919705306131583966286785050673876\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volumeClob": 509.713332,
"liquidityClob": 9860.7513,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-31T19:34:43Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8679802100512108,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "123176",
"conditionId": "0xeb19bf61af8fc67a720c7a5e5ee7006753ab5f8713d74fa567096aff4535d6b6",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 20,
"startDate": "2026-04-01",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 50,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.02,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.005,
"lastTradePrice": 0.12,
"bestBid": 0.1,
"bestAsk": 0.12,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-31T19:33:29.607349Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1796310",
"question": "Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?",
"conditionId": "0x1671cdf5bcf8748efcee39c259d1d9fe92f811bc7c0016d4de111ff9e505e502",
"slug": "will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-june-30-2026",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "10615.12452",
"startDate": "2026-03-31T19:35:57.849555Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-march-31-2026-pHHzfmzEI4kv.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-russia-test-a-nuclear-weapon-by-march-31-2026-pHHzfmzEI4kv.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.\n\nAccidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as \"dirty bombs\"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.\n\nTests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 \"Vela Incident\" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.02\", \"0.98\"]",
"volume": "990.873347",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-03-30T21:04:41.433711Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:39:09.737052Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "June 30, 2026",
"groupItemThreshold": "3",
"questionID": "0x3c772bdb654785a7fecaa09d2341d097c25fc7586e0c7e5c48fe72e76b485685",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 990.873347,
"liquidityNum": 10615.12452,
"endDateIso": "2026-06-30",
"startDateIso": "2026-03-31",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 9.73,
"volume1wk": 990.873347,
"volume1mo": 990.873347,
"volume1yr": 990.873347,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"115412860964540731843257783164916178378101789504298221141353231487631117721898\", \"90674293386835638514723468279949583694929104965183611005071396060104048086434\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 9.73,
"volume1wkClob": 990.873347,
"volume1moClob": 990.873347,
"volume1yrClob": 990.873347,
"volumeClob": 990.873347,
"liquidityClob": 10615.12452,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-03-31T19:34:51Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8127438231469442,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "123174",
"conditionId": "0x1671cdf5bcf8748efcee39c259d1d9fe92f811bc7c0016d4de111ff9e505e502",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 5,
"startDate": "2026-04-01",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 50,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.008,
"oneHourPriceChange": 0.0025,
"lastTradePrice": 0.014,
"bestBid": 0.016,
"bestAsk": 0.024,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-03-31T19:33:29.613321Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "126",
"label": "Trump",
"slug": "trump",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "270",
"label": "putin",
"slug": "putin",
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:46:19.507+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:46:19.528Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:44.08742Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "96",
"label": "Ukraine",
"slug": "ukraine",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:18:49.922+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:18:49.94Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:22.039982Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Russian strategic missile forces conducted drills on April 2 in Siberia, practicing camouflaged launches and responses to simulated attacks with Yars intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of nuclear warheads, heightening trader focus on escalation risks amid the Ukraine conflict. These exercises, the latest in a series of nuclear posturing, follow the February 5 expiry of the New START treaty—the last U.S.-Russia arms control pact—prompting mutual accusations of violating the nuclear test moratorium. Russia has not conducted a nuclear explosion test since 1990, adhering informally to the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty despite rhetoric suggesting potential resumption if the U.S. tests first. Trader consensus implies low near-term probabilities, with no official announcements or seismic indicators of preparations at sites like Novaya Zemlya, though diplomatic tensions or further drills could shift sentiment ahead of quarterly deadlines.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T18:49:21.508Z"
}
}- Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?Vol 510Liq 9.9KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?Vol 339Liq 9.1KEnd Sep 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?Vol 991Liq 10.6KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026?Vol 1.2MLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed
- Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025?Vol 63.5KLiq —Closed
- Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025?Vol 46.9KLiq —Closed