
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Ticker
russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026
Volume
6.0M
24h volume
120.3K
1w volume
1.3M
Open interest
1.8M
Liquidity
339.8K
Liquidity CLOB
339.8K
Start
Jan 13, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 13, 2026
Event ID
160707
Slug
russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30 at just 9.5% likelihood, anchored by mutual accusations of violating the Kremlin's 32-hour Orthodox Easter truce on April 11-12, which saw hundreds of reported breaches, one fatality, and no extension despite a prior prisoner swap of 175 each. Ongoing Russian offensives have gained modest territory in recent weeks, countered by Ukrainian drone strikes, while trilateral talks remain paused per Kremlin statements amid U.S. focus on Iran. Ukrainian negotiator Kyrylo Budanov cited progress on April 10, but core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and demilitarization persist without resolution momentum, underscoring significant barriers absent major diplomatic shifts.",
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