Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?

{
  "id": "160707",
  "ticker": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026",
  "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026",
  "title": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nOnly ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-01-13T19:24:47.819635Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-01-13T19:24:47.81963Z",
  "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025-w2voYOygx80B.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025-w2voYOygx80B.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 418691.558,
  "volume": 4615122.440330996,
  "openInterest": 1698105.650449,
  "createdAt": "2026-01-13T01:18:44.210391Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:40:06.377412Z",
  "competitive": 0.8530785472072341,
  "volume24hr": 40548.459484,
  "volume1wk": 933744.2536050016,
  "volume1mo": 2033602.5270480039,
  "volume1yr": 4615122.440330987,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 418691.558,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1171663",
      "question": "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0xe546672750517f62c45a5a00067481981e62b9c20fa8220203232c9dc8fd2093",
      "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-june-30-2026",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-06-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "418543.6745",
      "startDate": "2026-01-13T19:24:04.550257Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025-w2voYOygx80B.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2025-w2voYOygx80B.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.\n\nIf the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes,\" regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.\n\nOnly ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.\n\nAny form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.\n\nA peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.\n\nThis market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.085\", \"0.915\"]",
      "volume": "4615122.440330996",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-01-13T01:18:45.571878Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:39:40.184607Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x9870f59012db58905ed1c42c2560de2f9919f505bd7519ad7ba01bffa62cec93",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 4615122.440330996,
      "liquidityNum": 418543.6745,
      "endDateIso": "2026-06-30",
      "startDateIso": "2026-01-13",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 39303.818183999996,
      "volume1wk": 933744.2536050016,
      "volume1mo": 2033602.5270480039,
      "volume1yr": 4615122.440330987,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"92338023949892178944669766466918011858071833335063600591564160751176113496073\", \"93730658350732768649834008472861182019192630377489777653117511245710309885595\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 39303.818183999996,
      "volume1wkClob": 933744.2536050016,
      "volume1moClob": 2033602.5270480039,
      "volume1yrClob": 4615122.440330987,
      "volumeClob": 4615122.440330996,
      "liquidityClob": 418543.6745,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-13T19:23:42Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8530785472072341,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "69427",
          "conditionId": "0xe546672750517f62c45a5a00067481981e62b9c20fa8220203232c9dc8fd2093",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 10,
          "startDate": "2026-02-03",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.01,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.05,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.065,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.09,
      "bestBid": 0.08,
      "bestAsk": 0.09,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-13T19:18:28.883768Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "10058",
      "ticker": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire",
      "slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire",
      "title": "Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-issue-an-executive-order-on-february-14-IRIODX3MAqwP.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/how-many-executive-orders-will-trump-sign-in-february-yNd2eOKrgBfO.jpg",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "featured": false,
      "restricted": true,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-13T05:04:52.248289Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-06T19:36:51.973753Z",
      "volume24hr": 146893.557031,
      "volume": 19723478.142401233,
      "liquidity": 1860456.77453,
      "commentCount": 11927,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "103027",
      "label": "Ukraine Peace Deal",
      "slug": "ukraine-peace-deal",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-12-28T23:09:02.833617Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-12T15:58:00.37324Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.420693Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101794",
      "label": "Foreign Policy",
      "slug": "foreign-policy",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-02-06T17:24:29.604203Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:21.425957Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "102498",
      "label": "Trump-Zelenskyy",
      "slug": "trump-zelenskyy",
      "createdAt": "2025-08-16T20:50:50.502628Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:06.779194Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "102914",
      "label": "Trump-Zelensky",
      "slug": "trump-zelensky",
      "createdAt": "2025-11-25T21:50:38.056248Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:20:01.557584Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "96",
      "label": "Ukraine",
      "slug": "ukraine",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:18:49.922+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:18:49.94Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:22.039982Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices a 91.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks now on \"pause\" per Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, amid shifting U.S. priorities toward Middle East tensions. Recent Russian advances, including full control of Luhansk region claimed April 1, and rejections of Ukraine's Easter truce proposal—met with intensified strikes—underscore irreconcilable demands, with Moscow insisting on territorial capitulation and Kyiv refusing concessions. Ongoing military actions, such as Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and Russian long-range strikes, signal persistent escalation over de-escalation, leaving little momentum for agreement despite occasional diplomatic signals. Late breakthroughs in negotiations or major concessions could shift odds, though historical patterns in protracted conflicts suggest formidable barriers.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:18:15.538Z"
  }
}