Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-unanimous expectation that Ukraine will not achieve full NATO membership before 2027, driven primarily by the ongoing Russian invasion, which NATO leaders deem incompatible with accession due to Article 5 collective defense obligations. At the 2025 Hague summit and subsequent foreign ministers' meetings, allies reaffirmed Ukraine's \"irreversible path\" to NATO but offered no invitation or timeline, prioritizing war support over expansion amid divisions from holdouts like Hungary and Slovakia. President Zelenskyy's December 2025 offer to forgo NATO bids for alternative security guarantees amid stalled peace talks further dimmed prospects. The July 2026 Ankara summit looms as a potential catalyst, though rapid escalation de-escalation or unanimous consensus remains a slim outlier scenario.",
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