U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?

Name: U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by...?
Start: 2026-01-31T00:25:10.660088Z
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Ticker
us-anti-cartel-ground-operation-in-mexico-by-march-31
Volume
1.4M
24h volume
114
1w volume
12.3K
Open interest
34.2K
Liquidity
17.4K
Liquidity CLOB
17.4K
Start
Jan 31, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 31, 2026
Event ID
193911
Slug
us-anti-cartel-ground-operation-in-mexico-by-march-31
Markets
Tags
World Mexico Venezuela Politics Trump Geopolitics Mexico Cartel War cartel El Mencho mencho
Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probability for a U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico, driven by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum's firm rejection of foreign military intervention amid sovereignty concerns, despite escalating U.S. pressure. President Trump's March 7 \"Shield of the Americas\" summit rallied Latin American leaders for joint anti-cartel efforts, following a U.S. military strike on traffickers in Ecuador, but emphasized intel-sharing and sanctions over boots-on-the-ground in Mexico. Recent U.S.-aided Mexican raids, like the February hunt for CJNG's El Mencho, and OFAC designations of cartel-linked entities underscore bilateral cooperation, while Trump's terrorist designations and tariff threats heighten tensions. No verified U.S. troop deployments reported; upcoming border security talks and World Cup preparations could influence dynamics.",
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U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
Vol 86.4KLiq 17.4KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?
Vol 1.4MLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed