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U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Ticker
us-evacuates-baghdad-embassy-by
Volume
415.1K
24h volume
838
1w volume
20.8K
Open interest
6.8K
Liquidity
11.9K
Liquidity CLOB
11.9K
Start
Jan 31, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 31, 2026
Event ID
193920
Slug
us-evacuates-baghdad-embassy-by
Markets
3
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Amid escalating threats from Iran-aligned Iraqi militias, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad issued multiple security alerts in March and April 2026, including an ordered departure for non-emergency U.S. government personnel on March 3 and a rare \"leave Iraq immediately\" warning to American citizens on April 2, citing potential attacks in central Baghdad within 24-48 hours. Partial evacuations of diplomats and coordination staff from the Green Zone occurred amid drone strikes and rocket attacks on nearby facilities, such as Baghdad International Airport logistics sites, but no full embassy evacuation has been announced as operations continue under shelter-in-place protocols. Broader U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions fuel militia actions, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over further escalation or diplomatic de-escalation ahead of potential retaliatory strikes.",
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}- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?Vol 21.1KLiq 11.9KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?Vol 340.0KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28?Vol 54.0KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed