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U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Ticker
us-evacuates-baghdad-embassy-by
Volume
407.7K
24h volume
83
1w volume
21.5K
Open interest
5.6K
Liquidity
12.8K
Liquidity CLOB
12.8K
Start
Jan 31, 2026
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 31, 2026
Event ID
193920
Slug
us-evacuates-baghdad-embassy-by
Markets
3
Raw event data
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"context_description": "The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad operates under ordered departure status, allowing nonessential personnel to leave while core functions continue amid repeated threats from Iran-backed Iraqi militias. Its April 2 security alert warned of imminent attacks in central Baghdad, urging American citizens to depart Iraq immediately via land routes and avoid the embassy compound. March incidents included missile and drone strikes damaging embassy infrastructure, prompting partial evacuations and U.S. Marine reinforcements, but no full withdrawal. Ongoing U.S.-Iran escalation, including regional airstrikes and diplomatic tensions, drives trader consensus on evacuation risks, with militia actions or State Department announcements as key near-term catalysts.",
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}- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?Vol 13.7KLiq 13.4KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?Vol 340.0KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed
- U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28?Vol 54.0KLiq —End Feb 28, 2026Closed