US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

{
  "id": "145523",
  "ticker": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
  "slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
  "title": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the \"leader of Iran\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRoles that could qualify for \"leader of Iran\" status include, but are not limited to, \"head of state,\" \"prime minister,\" or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.\n\nA qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-01-05T20:34:55.233402Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-01-05T20:34:55.2334Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-before-august-YT6ouotabJ3S.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-before-august-YT6ouotabJ3S.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 59447.5962,
  "volume": 524714.4122090022,
  "openInterest": 155120.197137,
  "createdAt": "2026-01-05T17:30:52.32894Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-14T21:46:29.812588Z",
  "competitive": 0.8824372917999515,
  "volume24hr": 1347.208154,
  "volume1wk": 34973.597585999996,
  "volume1mo": 97398.42543,
  "volume1yr": 524714.4122090006,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 59447.5962,
  "commentCount": 24,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "1115288",
      "question": "US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0x0ac2141f45ac7ecb8477c64207db37f8f8efce800cbf705366771902e796e92a",
      "slug": "us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-in2026",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "57969.0277",
      "startDate": "2026-01-05T20:28:12.085746Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-before-august-YT6ouotabJ3S.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-recognizes-reza-pahlavi-as-leader-of-iran-before-august-YT6ouotabJ3S.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the \"leader of Iran\" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nRoles that could qualify for \"leader of Iran\" status include, but are not limited to, \"head of state,\" \"prime minister,\" or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.\n\nA qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.135\", \"0.865\"]",
      "volume": "524714.4122090022",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-01-05T17:30:53.264406Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-14T21:45:58.386516Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0xbcdf4daa095f28d595dc8a4292002835add7b27996e801084fa3beacd5e32e80",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 524714.4122090022,
      "liquidityNum": 57969.0277,
      "endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-01-05",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 1347.208154,
      "volume1wk": 34973.597585999996,
      "volume1mo": 97398.42543,
      "volume1yr": 524714.4122090006,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"35782709243786983035694178955131584324960374432781357142873120580614410145650\", \"16507531654323613440839711226389584097745237130431039493320761537250304112351\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 1347.208154,
      "volume1wkClob": 34973.597585999996,
      "volume1moClob": 97398.42543,
      "volume1yrClob": 524714.4122090006,
      "volumeClob": 524714.4122090022,
      "liquidityClob": 57969.0277,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-05T20:27:49Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8824372917999515,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "53561",
          "conditionId": "0x0ac2141f45ac7ecb8477c64207db37f8f8efce800cbf705366771902e796e92a",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 5,
          "startDate": "2026-01-05",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 100,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
      "spread": 0.01,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": -0.025,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.07,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.13,
      "bestBid": 0.13,
      "bestAsk": 0.14,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-05T20:27:18.702776Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101970",
      "label": "World",
      "slug": "world",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.420693Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "78",
      "label": "Iran",
      "slug": "iran",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:16:51.647+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:16:51.667Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.117508Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "154",
      "label": "Middle East",
      "slug": "middle-east",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:26:20.585+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:26:20.601Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:31:04.104846Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "126",
      "label": "Trump",
      "slug": "trump",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103996",
      "label": "Reza Pahlavi",
      "slug": "reza-pahlavi",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-01T18:06:44.46346Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:22.587148Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "104005",
      "label": "Iran Regime",
      "slug": "iranian-leadership-regime",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-03-02T19:48:14.400431Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:27:23.402244Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices \"No\" at 86.5% for US recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's persistence despite severe weakening from US-Israeli airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February. A fragile two-week ceasefire announced April 7 has halted escalation, with upcoming US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan focused on Trump's red lines—no nuclear enrichment, US control of highly enriched uranium, open Strait of Hormuz, abandoned missile programs, and ended proxy support—signaling preference for a deal allowing regime remnants to survive over endorsing the exiled crown prince. Pahlavi's recent addresses, including to Sweden's parliament on April 13 urging continued pressure, and March CPAC speech advocating \"Make Iran Great Again,\" have garnered opposition support but no official US backing, as Trump officials deem him non-viable amid uncollapsed leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-14T21:36:14.839Z"
  }
}