US strike on Cuba by...?

Name: US strike on Cuba by...?
Start: 2026-01-04T20:11:34.924069Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Ticker

us-strike-on-cuba-by

Volume

3.0M

24h volume

1.9K

1w volume

194.8K

Open interest

254.6K

Liquidity

49.2K

Liquidity CLOB

49.2K

Start

Jan 4, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 4, 2026

Event ID

143669

Slug

us-strike-on-cuba-by

Markets

Tags

Geopolitics Politics Venezuela Cuba

Raw event data

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  "tags": [
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      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
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      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
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    {
      "id": "246",
      "label": "Venezuela",
      "slug": "venezuela",
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      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:43:20.341+00",
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      "updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:41.386838Z",
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    {
      "id": "102868",
      "label": "Cuba",
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    "context_description": "Trump administration's oil blockade on Cuba, intensifying the island's humanitarian crisis through restricted energy imports, has fueled trader concerns over potential US military escalation, amplified by President Trump's repeated public statements warning that \"Cuba will fall very soon\" and could be \"next\" after actions in Venezuela and Iran. Cuba responded by placing its military on high alert for a possible US attack, though a senior US general stated on March 19 that no invasion preparations are underway. Democratic senators filed a war powers resolution on March 13 to curb unilateral executive action, while Russia dispatched additional oil tankers defying the blockade. These countervailing signals—rhetoric versus official denials and congressional checks—shape trader consensus on strike probabilities amid ongoing diplomatic standoff.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:18:25.688Z"
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US strike on Cuba by December 31?
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