Loading event…
US strike on Mexico by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
us-strike-on-mexico-by
Volume
3.3M
24h volume
572
1w volume
173.5K
Open interest
146.3K
Liquidity
41.0K
Liquidity CLOB
41.0K
Start
Jan 4, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 4, 2026
Event ID
143642
Slug
us-strike-on-mexico-by
Markets
3
Raw event data
{
"id": "143642",
"ticker": "us-strike-on-mexico-by",
"slug": "us-strike-on-mexico-by",
"title": "US strike on Mexico by...?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2026-01-04T19:58:13.932286Z",
"creationDate": "2026-01-04T19:58:13.932281Z",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-mexico-by-january-31-ob2_r_nqU3Z4.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-mexico-by-january-31-ob2_r_nqU3Z4.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 41001.6096,
"volume": 3281919.442436002,
"openInterest": 146250.972968,
"createdAt": "2026-01-04T19:49:25.136608Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T21:30:56.090115Z",
"competitive": 0.934382956854867,
"volume24hr": 572.070517,
"volume1wk": 173512.58681599997,
"volume1mo": 1339804.3745750014,
"volume1yr": 1815650.2245240014,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 41001.6096,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 162,
"markets": [
{
"id": "1107381",
"question": "US strike on Mexico by December 31?",
"conditionId": "0xb23e6d6ba72e76bbce9799daf527e3598a939a602ff5e069cf27a0b25bab50a7",
"slug": "us-strike-on-mexico-by-december-31",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "41360.4496",
"startDate": "2026-01-04T19:56:13.240037Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-mexico-by-january-31-ob2_r_nqU3Z4.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-mexico-by-january-31-ob2_r_nqU3Z4.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.235\", \"0.765\"]",
"volume": "553457.498877",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-04T19:51:36.100591Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T21:30:23.947637Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "December 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "2",
"questionID": "0xd9423f32a52e0a2b1c38b36bc51c7bfa7c89e0f6c7c9975b7f9b3aa51f7d00fb",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 553457.498877,
"liquidityNum": 41360.4496,
"endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-04",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 572.070517,
"volume1wk": 5302.04673,
"volume1mo": 77611.64892800005,
"volume1yr": 553457.4988770001,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"112288566808772191752176657553224517134449016925515982914334631049531197841047\", \"4920174600328060381478178332126683115937537315909025772685332706706025236975\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 572.070517,
"volume1wkClob": 5302.04673,
"volume1moClob": 77611.64892800005,
"volume1yrClob": 553457.4988770001,
"volumeClob": 553457.498877,
"liquidityClob": 41360.4496,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-04T19:55:51Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.934382956854867,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "113122",
"conditionId": "0xb23e6d6ba72e76bbce9799daf527e3598a939a602ff5e069cf27a0b25bab50a7",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 0.001,
"startDate": "2026-03-24",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.01,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.02,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.06,
"lastTradePrice": 0.23,
"bestBid": 0.23,
"bestAsk": 0.24,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-04T19:52:04.805733Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1107361",
"question": "US strike on Mexico by January 31?",
"conditionId": "0x386c1da56d757c6920fc73535aba510300e9cd666c0312d11b4cc03f097fb487",
"slug": "us-strike-on-mexico-by-january-31",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-01-04T19:56:12.98624Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-mexico-by-january-31-ob2_r_nqU3Z4.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-mexico-by-january-31-ob2_r_nqU3Z4.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "1262192.725647",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-04T19:49:25.825511Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:44:18.785676Z",
"closedTime": "2026-02-03 07:52:40+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "January 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0xf39693a836dc3b132451fe6d0ed811650235454d404ed08da8d6e7fc0b7e07e4",
"umaEndDate": "2026-02-03T07:52:40Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 1262192.725647,
"endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-04",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume1wk": 168210.54008599996,
"volume1mo": 1262192.7256470015,
"volume1yr": 1262192.7256470015,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"63261459433323020856575387789253256070173594617236763006477922210149664988186\", \"91704962006845431511273988613996521492030307444776446954708148967530919259358\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume1wkClob": 168210.54008599996,
"volume1moClob": 1262192.7256470015,
"volume1yrClob": 1262192.7256470015,
"volumeClob": 1262192.725647,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-04T19:55:51Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 100,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"oneHourPriceChange": -0.001,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.008,
"lastTradePrice": 0.004,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-04T19:52:04.802857Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1107380",
"question": "US strike on Mexico by March 31?",
"conditionId": "0x53e409b11e90081ba2cb0834a391e1208dd4c87ac817e4c76a5125cd2b647a9f",
"slug": "us-strike-on-mexico-by-march-31",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"startDate": "2026-01-04T19:56:13.49364Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-mexico-by-january-31-ob2_r_nqU3Z4.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/us-strike-on-mexico-by-january-31-ob2_r_nqU3Z4.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a qualifying \"strike\" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.\n\nA strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.\n\nMissiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a \"Yes\" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.\n\nActions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.\n\nAny strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\nThis market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to \"No\" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0\", \"1\"]",
"volume": "1466269.217912002",
"active": true,
"closed": true,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-01-04T19:51:06.253814Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-04T05:44:25.013751Z",
"closedTime": "2026-04-03 06:49:05+00",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": " March 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "1",
"questionID": "0xe2d1915fdbc7138e44086882d79f357e81a9cda2a4503ee474bbf6bafe6df2f0",
"umaEndDate": "2026-04-03T06:49:05Z",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"umaResolutionStatus": "resolved",
"volumeNum": 1466269.217912002,
"endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
"startDateIso": "2026-01-04",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"112868460626020249808987722764396247953033163708467222099569008253966276917331\", \"39685513581015973828065061115014564319705732336697536508658294168692213551689\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volumeClob": 1466269.217912002,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": false,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-01-04T19:55:51Z",
"cyom": false,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 3.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"automaticallyResolved": true,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.005,
"oneMonthPriceChange": -0.03,
"lastTradePrice": 0.001,
"bestAsk": 0.001,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[\"proposed\"]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-01-04T19:52:04.808795Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "126",
"label": "Trump",
"slug": "trump",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "246",
"label": "Venezuela",
"slug": "venezuela",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:43:20.341+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:43:20.356Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:41.386838Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101794",
"label": "Foreign Policy",
"slug": "foreign-policy",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-02-06T17:24:29.604203Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:21.425957Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "103873",
"label": "Mexico Cartel War",
"slug": "mexico-cartel-war",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2026-02-22T22:52:45.901351Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:42.642065Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "103879",
"label": "mencho",
"slug": "mencho",
"createdAt": "2026-02-23T15:55:47.530566Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:26:22.762198Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Trader consensus prices a modest 24% chance of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike impacting Mexican soil by December 31, 2026, reflecting successful joint US-Mexico anti-cartel operations that have curbed violence without unilateral military action. Key drivers include February's US-aided killing of CJNG leader El Mencho, a 14-32% drop in murders, and extradition of over 90 cartel figures, alongside recent US strikes on drug vessels in the eastern Pacific rather than on land. January FAA warnings of military activities over Mexico and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's summit rhetoric fueled brief spikes, but President Sheinbaum's diplomatic reassurances and ongoing cooperation have eased tensions. Escalation risks persist if fentanyl flows continue, with SOUTHCOM planning monitored closely.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-14T21:17:41.923Z"
}
}- US strike on Mexico by December 31?Vol 553.5KLiq 41.4KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- US strike on Mexico by March 31?Vol 1.5MLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed
- US strike on Mexico by January 31?Vol 1.3MLiq —End Dec 31, 2026Closed