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Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Ticker
us-x-iran-ceasefire-by
Volume
102.9M
24h volume
9.5M
1w volume
38.2M
Open interest
17.5M
Liquidity
1.8M
Liquidity CLOB
1.8M
Start
Feb 28, 2026
End
—
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Feb 28, 2026
Event ID
236840
Slug
us-x-iran-ceasefire-by
Markets
10
Raw event data
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}- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Vol 1.3MLiq 165.8KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Vol 3.6MLiq 170.8KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Vol 4.4MLiq 162.1KEnd May 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Vol 13.5MLiq 405.6KOpenOrder book
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Vol 16.2MLiq 484.3KEnd Apr 15, 2026OpenOrder book
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Vol 16.1MLiq 398.4KEnd Apr 7, 2026OpenOrder book
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Vol 44.4MLiq —Closed
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Vol 3.5MLiq —Closed
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?Vol —Liq —Closed
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Vol —Liq —Closed