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US x Russia military clash by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
us-x-russia-military-clash-by
Volume
586.0K
24h volume
967
1w volume
37.3K
Open interest
10.5K
Liquidity
28.4K
Liquidity CLOB
28.4K
Start
May 28, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
May 28, 2025
Event ID
25410
Slug
us-x-russia-military-clash-by
Markets
4
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus prices a slim 9% implied probability of a direct US-Russia military clash—defined as missile strikes, artillery fire, or gunfire between their forces—by December 31, 2026, reflecting sustained mutual restraint amid the ongoing Ukraine proxy war. Recent Russian frontline advances in Sumy and Luhansk as of early April 2026, coupled with President Zelenskyy's March 25 claim of US security guarantees conditional on Donbas withdrawal, underscore diplomatic pressures favoring de-escalation over escalation. Nuclear deterrence and historical avoidance of qualifying incidents, like Black Sea near-misses, anchor low odds, though miscalculations in shared theaters or shifts in US NATO commitments could elevate risks ahead of potential summer summits.",
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}- US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Vol 7.1KLiq 5.3KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Vol 55.7KLiq 23.3KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- US x Russia military clash by December 31?Vol 417.0KLiq —End Dec 31, 2025Closed
- US x Russia military clash by January 31, 2026?Vol 106.2KLiq —End Jun 30, 2026Closed