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Which banks will fail by June 30?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework, within the listed date range: - The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions. - The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank. - A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention. - The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank. - The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer. If there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open until September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.” The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
which-banks-will-fail-by-june-30
Volume
363.7K
24h volume
39
1w volume
1.5K
Open interest
79.2K
Liquidity
77.8K
Liquidity CLOB
77.8K
Start
Dec 31, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 31, 2025
Event ID
133436
Slug
which-banks-will-fail-by-june-30
Markets
8
Raw event data
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"title": "Which banks will fail by June 30?",
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"id": "1067175",
"question": "Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026?",
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"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed bank fails between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nFor the purposes of this market, the listed bank will be considered to have “failed” if, within the listed date range, any of the following occurs under the bank’s applicable legal or regulatory framework:\n\n- The listed bank’s primary banking regulator formally declares the institution insolvent or non-viable, or withdraws or revokes the bank’s license or authorization, and such determination initiates or directly results in resolution, liquidation, wind-down, or transfer actions.\n- The listed bank enters a court-ordered liquidation, statutory resolution regime, or regulator-mandated wind-down, including the use of resolution tools such as bail-ins, forced asset transfers, or the establishment of a bridge bank.\n- A government or resolution authority intervenes in a manner that wipes out or subordinates existing equity of the listed bank and transfers effective control of the bank to the state or a designated resolution authority, with continued operations dependent on official intervention.\n- The listed bank publicly defaults on a payment obligation, including derivatives margin, repo, or physical commodity delivery, and such default is formally acknowledged by the bank’s primary regulator or resolution authority and directly results in the initiation of resolution, liquidation, license withdrawal, or regulator-mandated transfer of the bank.\n- The listed bank is subject to a compulsory merger, acquisition, or transfer of all or substantially all of its assets and liabilities ordered or directed by its primary banking regulator or resolution authority due to the bank’s financial condition or to prevent failure, regardless of whether a formal insolvency declaration or immediate equity wipeout is publicly announced at the time of transfer.\n\nIf there is a potential failure of the listed bank within this market’s date range and a qualifying regulatory or court action has occurred but has not yet been fully published by the relevant authority, this market may remain open to allow for confirmation. If no qualifying failure is confirmed by that date, this market will resolve to “No.”\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official statements, filings, or actions by the listed bank’s primary banking regulator or resolution authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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"question": "Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026?",
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{
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"question": "Will Scotiabank fail by June 30, 2026?",
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{
"id": "1067178",
"question": "Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026?",
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"question": "Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026?",
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"question": "Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026?",
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"question": "Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026?",
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"question": "Will Goldman Sachs fail by June 30, 2026?",
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns negligible implied probabilities—Citigroup leading at 3%, UBS at 3%, others below 2%—to major bank failures by June 30, 2026, reflecting the U.S. sector's fortified capital buffers and liquidity post-2023 reforms amid only one isolated small-bank failure (Metropolitan Capital, $261 million assets) in January. Recent FDIC data highlights $306 billion in system-wide unrealized losses and 60 problem banks (mostly regionals), but megabanks maintain healthy balance sheets with low non-performing loan ratios below 1%. Commercial real estate maturities ($900 billion in 2026) pose sector risks, yet trader sentiment prioritizes resilience. Key catalysts include Q1 earnings releases this month and Federal Reserve stress test results in late June, which could shift pricing if revealing vulnerabilities.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:19:51.096Z"
}
}- Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026?Vol 9.1KLiq 8.1KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
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