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Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of [the specified city or settlement] () by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ticker
which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-june-30
Volume
958.4K
24h volume
10.3K
1w volume
35.3K
Open interest
339.0K
Liquidity
196.0K
Liquidity CLOB
196.0K
Start
Dec 26, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 26, 2025
Event ID
120108
Slug
which-cities-will-russia-enter-by-june-30
Markets
8
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Dopropillia at a 28% implied probability of Russian entry by June 30, 2026—per ISW map shading of any city territory—as the leading outcome, driven by its proximity to active Pokrovsk-direction fronts where Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks east toward Kucheriv Yar and southeast near Zapovidne in early April without confirmed gains. Ongoing infiltrations in the Kostiantynivka-Druzhkivka area and assaults near Sloviansk and Kramatorsk have yielded no frontline shifts per ISW's April 13 assessment, hampered by Ukrainian drone strikes, counteradvances northeast of Lyman, and high attrition amid spring logistics strains. Net Russian territorial gains slowed to ~136 km² in March, signaling contested advances ahead of potential summer escalations.",
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}- Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Vol 186.6KLiq 24.8KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
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