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Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Ticker
which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30
Volume
1.4M
24h volume
249
1w volume
118.7K
Open interest
60.2K
Liquidity
53.1K
Liquidity CLOB
53.1K
Start
Dec 22, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Dec 22, 2025
Event ID
117916
Slug
which-companies-will-have-a-1-ai-model-by-june-30
Markets
11
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 large language model has commanded the #1 position on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since early March 2026, topping text, code, and vision benchmarks with superior Elo scores from crowdsourced user battles, solidifying trader consensus around its competitive edge in real-world preferences. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 variants trail closely at #6-8, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview sits at #3 and xAI's Grok-4.20 beta at #4, reflecting tight frontier AI positioning amid rapid iterations. OpenAI completed training on its next model, SPUD, on March 24—CEO Sam Altman signaled a \"weeks-away\" launch that could reclaim leadership by June 30. Watch for Anthropic's internal Mythos tests and unannounced drops from Meta Llama or Google, as leaderboard shifts often follow surprise releases ahead of developer conferences.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:19:10.656Z"
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}- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?Vol 258.0KLiq —End Jun 30, 2026Closed
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