
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Ticker
which-company-has-the-1-ai-model-end-of-april-style-control-on
Volume
887.0K
24h volume
4.6K
1w volume
84.6K
Open interest
21.4K
Liquidity
181.6K
Liquidity CLOB
181.6K
Start
Mar 20, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 20, 2026
Event ID
290459
Slug
which-company-has-the-1-ai-model-end-of-april-style-control-on
Markets
27
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{
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"context_description": "Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 commands a commanding 90% implied probability on Polymarket to hold the top spot on the LMArena Chatbot Arena text leaderboard (Style Control On) by April 30, driven by its sustained dominance in human-voted battles that prioritize substantive reasoning over stylistic flair. Released in February 2026, the model excels in coding, complex instruction-following, and content quality, widening its lead over challengers like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 amid thin Elo margins elsewhere. No major competitor releases in the past week have shifted trader consensus, with upcoming catalysts like potential xAI or OpenAI drops viewed skeptically due to historical delays. Traders betting real capital see minimal risk of upset in the next 24 days.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T19:03:53.258Z"
}
}