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Which company has the best AI model end of April?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Ticker
which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-april
Volume
4.2M
24h volume
236.9K
1w volume
1.5M
Open interest
263.1K
Liquidity
945.2K
Liquidity CLOB
945.2K
Start
Mar 20, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 20, 2026
Event ID
290398
Slug
which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-end-of-april
Markets
27
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at 86% implied probability to hold the top AI model spot by April 30, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged reign atop the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard since February 2026—a crowdsourced benchmark where blind user votes crown the superior large language model in real-world chats. Recent bolstering came from Anthropic's Claude Sonnet 5 release last week, smashing SWE-bench records at 92.4% for coding prowess, amid leaks hinting at a massive Claude Mythos successor. OpenAI's GPT-5.4 edges some proprietary benchmarks but lags on Arena, with its post-training SPUD model teased for imminent launch as the chief threat; Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro trails in third, lacking near-term upgrades to close the gap. Watch OpenAI's rollout timeline closely as the key swing factor.",
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