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Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
which-countries-will-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by-april-30
Volume
1.2M
24h volume
116.9K
1w volume
915.7K
Open interest
456.4K
Liquidity
217.2K
Liquidity CLOB
217.2K
Start
Mar 23, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 23, 2026
Event ID
300427
Slug
which-countries-will-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by-april-30
Markets
13
Tags
Raw event data
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"context_description": "The United States and Israel remain the primary actors conducting airstrikes against Iran, with strikes reported as recently as April 5 in southwest Iran killing at least three and near the Bushehr nuclear plant, marking day 37 of the conflict that began February 28 targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, and IRGC leadership. President Trump's latest threats demand Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face further action, following the April 3 downing of a US F-15E fighter jet over Iran, where one crew was rescued. Gulf states like UAE and Saudi Arabia express support for aggressive measures but have not joined kinetically, amid UN Security Council debates on Hormuz enforcement; escalation risks persist through April 30, potentially drawing coalition partners if Iranian retaliation intensifies.",
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}- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Vol 443.3KLiq 50.8KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
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