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Which countries will conduct military action against Iran by April 30?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
which-countries-will-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by-april-30
Volume
2.7M
24h volume
37.4K
1w volume
1.2M
Open interest
707.5K
Liquidity
289.5K
Liquidity CLOB
289.5K
Start
Mar 23, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 23, 2026
Event ID
300427
Slug
which-countries-will-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by-april-30
Markets
13
Tags
Raw event data
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"context_description": "US and Israel initiated large-scale airstrikes against Iranian military, nuclear, and government targets on February 28, 2026, sparking a 40-day conflict that ended in a fragile ceasefire on April 8 amid mutual retaliatory strikes and Axis of Resistance attacks. In the last 24 hours, the US Navy enforced a blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump vowing to destroy approaching Iranian warships, directly testing the truce and risking escalation before April 30 resolution. Failed negotiations in Islamabad and persistent Iranian drone threats against Gulf states fuel trader caution, while UK and France limit support to condemnations and defensive operations; Saudi Arabia and UAE provide bases but no verified direct strikes. No fire exchanged since the ceasefire, though blockade enforcement could prompt rapid shifts.",
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}- Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Vol 1.3MLiq 75.1KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
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