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Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Ticker
which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-april-30
Volume
925.0K
24h volume
23.7K
1w volume
289.1K
Open interest
138.6K
Liquidity
230.3K
Liquidity CLOB
230.3K
Start
Mar 27, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 27, 2026
Event ID
313720
Slug
which-countries-will-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-april-30
Markets
11
Raw event data
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}- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Vol 112.5KLiq 44.1KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
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- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?Vol 29.5KLiq 17.7KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
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