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Overview
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
Ticker
which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026
Volume
1.5M
24h volume
18.7K
1w volume
199.7K
Open interest
1.6M
Liquidity
371.8K
Liquidity CLOB
371.8K
Start
Jul 11, 2025
End
Nov 3, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jul 11, 2025
Event ID
32224
Slug
which-party-will-win-the-senate-in-2026
Markets
9
Tags
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Republicans defend 22 Senate seats in the 2026 midterms—mostly in solid red states—against Democrats' 13, creating a map favoring the GOP to retain their 53-47 majority, yet traders price Democrats at a slim 52.5% edge reflecting recent polling averages showing a national Democratic lead of over 5 points and advantages in battlegrounds like North Carolina (open Tillis seat, Cooper leading Whatley), Maine (Collins trailing challengers), Georgia (Ossoff ahead), Michigan (open Peters), and New Hampshire (open Shaheen). A March wave of retirements, including recent announcements from Montana's Daines and Oklahoma's Armstrong, opened competitive races, amplifying midterm dynamics historically punishing the president's party. Separation could emerge from primary outcomes, such as Texas' Paxton-Cornyn runoff, economic shifts, or presidential approval trends ahead of November 3.",
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}- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Vol 788.6KLiq 192.4KEnd Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Vol 750.6KLiq 179.7KEnd Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Party A control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Vol 0Liq 0End Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Party B control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Vol 0Liq 0End Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Party C control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Vol 0Liq 0End Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Party D control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Vol 0Liq 0End Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Party E control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Vol 0Liq 0End Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Party F control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Vol 0Liq 0End Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will another party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Vol 0Liq 0End Nov 3, 2026OpenOrder book