
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Ticker
who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027
Volume
963.5K
24h volume
9.2K
1w volume
84.4K
Open interest
85.9K
Liquidity
240.0K
Liquidity CLOB
240.0K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73897
Slug
who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027
Markets
20
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "Trump's second-term administration has experienced elevated cabinet turnover, reaching 29% for top positions by early 2026 per Brookings tracking, surpassing historical norms but below his first term's pace. Recent catalysts include the abrupt removal of Attorney General Pam Bondi last week amid performance scrutiny, alongside replacements for DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and earlier ousters like National Security Adviser Mike Waltz in May 2025, signaling ongoing loyalty tests and policy execution pressures. Rumors swirl around Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's potential exit, fueled by partisan commentary and internal reporting. With 2026 midterms approaching in November, post-election reshuffles or midterm losses could accelerate further departures before 2027, reflecting trader focus on White House staffing volatility.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-14T21:48:55.105Z"
}
}