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Who will win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Ticker
who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal
Volume
370.3K
24h volume
263
1w volume
3.0K
Open interest
11.8K
Liquidity
13.4K
Liquidity CLOB
13.4K
Start
Jan 6, 2026
End
Jul 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 6, 2026
Event ID
147360
Slug
who-will-win-the-2026-fields-medal
Markets
10
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Trader consensus crowns Hong Wang as the frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal following her 2025 resolution of the long-standing three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture alongside Joshua Zahl, a breakthrough in harmonic analysis and geometric measure theory that has dominated math community discussions and prediction markets. At 35, the Chinese mathematician—now the first female permanent professor at the Institut des Hautes Études Scientifiques—exemplifies the paradigm-shifting work prized by the International Mathematical Union's secret committee, which selects up to four recipients under 40. Other strong contenders include Jacob Tsimerman for André-Oort advances, Jack Thorne in algebraic number theory, and Sam Raskin for geometric Langlands progress, with historical patterns favoring geographic and subfield balance. The medals will be awarded at the International Congress of Mathematicians in Philadelphia, July 23–30, where plenary invitations may signal further momentum amid potential late breakthroughs.",
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"context_updated_at": "2026-04-06T18:33:52.914Z"
}
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