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Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
will-another-country-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by
Volume
1.2M
24h volume
53.1K
1w volume
580.7K
Open interest
259.6K
Liquidity
70.3K
Liquidity CLOB
70.3K
Start
Mar 19, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 19, 2026
Event ID
283557
Slug
will-another-country-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by
Markets
2
Raw event data
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "The US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz took effect April 14, 2026, after a Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefire from April 8 faltered over Tehran's refusal to reopen the strait amid failed Islamabad talks. This military escalation follows US-Israeli airstrikes—including Israel's April 4 attack on the Mahshahr petrochemical complex—that degraded Iran's ballistic missile production and air defenses. Israel's IDF is on heightened alert for potential Iranian drone and missile retaliations, while reports of UAE and Saudi-operated drones downed over Iran signal possible Gulf state involvement. Upcoming US-Iran negotiations and Hormuz transit tests could drive de-escalation or further airstrikes.",
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}- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Vol 377.9KLiq 28.9KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Vol 773.1KLiq 47.4KEnd Apr 15, 2026OpenOrder book