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Will another country conduct military action against Iran by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country other than Israel or the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” For the purposes of this market, a qualifying “military action” is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by a country other than Israel or the United States’ military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile or drone launched by such a country, this market will resolve to “Yes”). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground forces of countries other than Israel or the United States will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Ticker
will-another-country-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by
Volume
544.1K
24h volume
50.1K
1w volume
391.1K
Open interest
194.1K
Liquidity
41.8K
Liquidity CLOB
41.8K
Start
Mar 19, 2026
End
Apr 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 19, 2026
Event ID
283557
Slug
will-another-country-conduct-military-action-against-iran-by
Markets
2
Raw event data
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{
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "US-Israeli airstrikes since late February 2026 have severely degraded Iran's navy, air defenses, missile launchers, and production facilities, following the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and limiting Tehran's retaliatory power projection. Iran has fired ballistic missiles and drones at Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait, which intercepted most but have not launched qualifying drone, missile, or air strikes on Iranian soil in response. Saudi officials assert self-defense rights amid these attacks, yet Gulf nations provide US logistical support without direct offensive action, deterred by UN Security Council blocks from Russia and China. President Trump's April 6 ultimatum—concessions by April 7 or infrastructure targeting—fuels trader consensus on modest odds of new actors escalating before April 30.",
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}- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Vol 214.4KLiq 22.6KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Vol 329.9KLiq 19.6KEnd Apr 15, 2026OpenOrder book