Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

Name: Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
Start: 2026-01-05T21:22:04.233043Z
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00Z

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If those areas are not simultaneously shaded red by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of a municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within a municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this may still qualify. Once Russia has captured the entirety of the above-specified municipalities simultaneously, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: 1. Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. 2. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will not qualify, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. Similarly, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Control must be established through military conquest.

Ticker

will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by

Volume

382.4K

24h volume

1.1K

1w volume

13.7K

Open interest

121.2K

Liquidity

51.2K

Liquidity CLOB

51.2K

Start

Jan 5, 2026

End

Jun 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 5, 2026

Event ID

139550

Slug

will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by

Markets

Tags

Ukraine Map Geopolitics Ukraine Russia putin Politics Military Actions

Raw event data

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  "title": "Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?",
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    "context_description": "Russian forces continue grinding assaults across Donetsk Oblast fronts, including Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kostyantynivka directions, but recorded no confirmed advances in the past week amid intensified Ukrainian counterattacks and strikes on Russian concentrations. Ukrainian troops advanced in northern Pokrovsk and repelled infiltrations east of Kostyantynivka, enabling regains of frontline positions in the east and President Zelenskiy's assessment of the strongest defensive posture in 10 months as of early April 2026. Russia occupies most of the oblast per Institute for the Study of War maps—its resolution source—but holds out key hubs like Pokrovsk, with March assaults yielding high losses and a stalled spring offensive. Escalation risks rise with foliage aiding camouflage, though sustained Ukrainian defenses and attrition temper full-capture prospects by June 30.",
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Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?
Vol 72.7KLiq 51.2KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by March 31, 2026?
Vol 309.7KLiq —End Jun 30, 2026Closed