
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg Sumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Ticker
will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october
Volume
673.2K
24h volume
183
1w volume
32.4K
Open interest
67.1K
Liquidity
49.2K
Liquidity CLOB
49.2K
Start
Jun 2, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2027
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jun 2, 2025
Event ID
25827
Slug
will-russia-capture-sumy-before-october
Markets
3
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"description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sumy railroad station located on Pryvokzalna ploscha by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nTrain Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+train+station.jpg\n\nSumy Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/sumy+location.jpg\n\nLocation on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vd3fmfpUTB6BooEb9\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.",
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"context_description": "Russian forces have conducted incremental advances in northern Sumy Oblast border areas over the past month, capturing small settlements such as Malaya Korchakovka, Sopych, and Hrabovske to establish a buffer zone along the international border, as reported in Institute for the Study of War assessments through April 5, 2026, when offensives continued without confirmed territorial gains. Ukrainian defenses have repelled deeper incursions amid mutual drone and artillery strikes causing civilian casualties in the region. No major breakthroughs toward Sumy city—over 30 kilometers from the border—have occurred, with traders weighing slow Russian progress against fortified Ukrainian positions, manpower shortages, and potential spring escalations or Western aid impacts ahead of undefined resolution timelines tied to ISW maps.",
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