
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.
Ticker
will-the-gop-use-nuclear-option-to-break-filibuster
Volume
559.4K
1w volume
28.1K
Open interest
999
Liquidity
720
Liquidity CLOB
720
Start
Oct 1, 2025
End
Mar 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Oct 1, 2025
Event ID
52630
Slug
will-the-gop-use-nuclear-option-to-break-filibuster
Markets
4
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"context_description": "Amid prolonged pressure from President Trump to eliminate the Senate filibuster via the nuclear option during the partial DHS government shutdown that began in February 2026, trader sentiment hinges on institutional resistance from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and at least 13-24 GOP senators who oppose altering cloture rules for legislation. The shutdown ended in early April through a Republican funding deal without rule changes, echoing historical patterns where the nuclear option has been limited to nominations (Democrats in 2013, Republicans in 2017 for Supreme Court). Upcoming debt ceiling and appropriations battles could renew calls, but GOP preference for negotiation and fear of Democratic retaliation maintain low odds for a full legislative filibuster overhaul by year-end.",
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