Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Name: Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Start: 2026-01-05T19:19:22.930966Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

will-the-us-invade-greenland-in-2026

Volume

1.3M

24h volume

689

1w volume

4.6K

Open interest

187.4K

Liquidity

101.2K

Liquidity CLOB

101.2K

Start

Jan 5, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jan 5, 2026

Event ID

145536

Slug

will-the-us-invade-greenland-in-2026

Markets

Tags

Politics Greenland Denmark Geopolitics Trump Davos

Raw event data

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Greenland—a Danish autonomous territory—at just 6.5% likelihood for 2026, reflecting President Trump's January pivot away from threats of military force toward diplomatic negotiations for expanded basing access. After early-year rhetoric escalated tensions, prompting Danish contingency plans to sabotage runways, Trump ruled out force in a Davos speech, easing fears of NATO confrontation. Recent Pentagon talks with Denmark for three new military facilities in Greenland, reported April 1, underscore Arctic security priorities amid Russian threats, but signal cooperative expansion rather than aggression. Trump's April 6 remarks assailing NATO over Greenland revive disputes without invasion signals, with legal, congressional, and alliance barriers making forceful annexation improbable barring extraordinary escalation.",
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Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
Vol 1.3MLiq 101.2KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book