Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Greenland—an autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark—at just 8.5% for 2026, reflecting the absence of any official military threats or escalatory rhetoric from the White House or Pentagon. Recent diplomatic progress dominates: In early April, the U.S. advanced negotiations with Denmark for access to three additional bases, including previously abandoned sites, alongside $25 million in upgrades to the existing Pituffik Space Base under the longstanding 1951 defense agreement. These moves address Arctic vulnerabilities amid Russian and Chinese activities, favoring cooperation over conflict. No recent statements suggest forcible annexation, though abrupt geopolitical shocks like territorial disputes or alliance fractures could theoretically shift odds.",
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