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Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by
Volume
6.0M
24h volume
28.8K
1w volume
427.4K
Open interest
504.4K
Liquidity
224.8K
Liquidity CLOB
224.8K
Start
Jan 12, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 12, 2026
Event ID
160366
Slug
will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by
Markets
3
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Amid escalating US-Iran hostilities in the ongoing 2026 Iran war—initiated by US and Israeli airstrikes on February 28 targeting nuclear sites, military bases, and leadership—no formal congressional declaration of war has occurred, a rarity since World War II with actions proceeding under existing authorizations for military force. Recent intensification includes a US naval blockade of Iranian ports and the Strait of Hormuz enforced this week, President Trump's warnings to sink challenging vessels, and Iran-linked tankers defying restrictions despite a fragile two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan that expired amid failed Islamabad talks. Congressional Democrats' war powers resolution to limit operations was blocked by Republicans, while Pakistan proposes renewed negotiations next week; traders eye these diplomacy efforts and potential Senate votes amid de-escalation signals versus blockade enforcement risks.",
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}- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Vol 382.6KLiq 80.9KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Vol 1.0MLiq 143.7KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?Vol 4.6MLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed