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Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by
Volume
5.5M
24h volume
88.1K
1w volume
382.3K
Open interest
460.2K
Liquidity
131.8K
Liquidity CLOB
131.8K
Start
Jan 12, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 12, 2026
Event ID
160366
Slug
will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by
Markets
3
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Despite intense U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure since late February 2026—including recent hits on production sites and a successful pilot rescue over the weekend—President Trump has extended a 24-hour ultimatum demanding Tehran lift its Strait of Hormuz blockade, issuing expletive-laden threats without pursuing a formal congressional war declaration. The Senate's 47-53 vote in early March to allow continued operations highlights reliance on executive authority and existing resolutions, mirroring post-World War II precedents where formal declarations have been absent. Iranian vows of crushing retaliation amid proxy escalations keep tensions high, but traders anticipate no shift to official war status by April 30 or year-end, barring major congressional action or regime collapse.",
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}- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?Vol 352.2KLiq 44.9KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Vol 553.6KLiq 86.8KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?Vol 4.6MLiq —End Mar 31, 2026Closed