
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ghislaine Maxwell receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between July 23, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ticker
will-trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell
Volume
532.6K
24h volume
20.5K
1w volume
23.6K
Open interest
104.4K
Liquidity
35.3K
Liquidity CLOB
35.3K
Start
Jul 23, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jul 23, 2025
Event ID
33705
Slug
will-trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Trader consensus prices a Ghislaine Maxwell pardon by President Trump at just 5.5% likelihood, reflecting no White House engagement despite her legal team's repeated clemency appeals, including a March 13 statement from lawyer David Oscar Markus confirming ongoing efforts. Maxwell's February virtual House deposition, where she pleaded the Fifth but offered testimony exonerating Trump in exchange for relief, drew swift bipartisan backlash, including Sen. Jacky Rosen's resolution opposing any clemency for her sex-trafficking conviction tied to Jeffrey Epstein. Trump's prior non-committal remarks—such as October 2025 comments on consulting DOJ—have gone dormant amid political risks from the scandal, with no recent executive actions or announcements signaling intent before the market's end-2026 resolution. Late developments like health events or negotiations could shift odds, but current stasis favors the status quo.",
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