
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ticker
will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027
Volume
541.4K
24h volume
1.1K
1w volume
11.0K
Open interest
154.2K
Liquidity
35.9K
Liquidity CLOB
35.9K
Start
Nov 13, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 13, 2025
Event ID
80824
Slug
will-ukraine-agree-to-cede-territory-to-russia-before-2027
Markets
1
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"context_description": "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reaffirmed as recently as yesterday that Kyiv cannot cede any territory in peace negotiations with Russia, resisting U.S. pressure linking post-war security guarantees to relinquishing the entire Donbas region, as revealed in late March Reuters reporting. Ongoing U.S.-brokered talks have stalled without concessions, with Russia demanding territorial handovers and investing heavily in occupied areas like Donbas, signaling no intent to withdraw. Zelenskyy's consistent rejection of compromises, amid continued frontline fighting and no major diplomatic breakthroughs in the past month, underpins trader consensus implying an 83.5% probability Ukraine will not agree to cede land before 2027, though intensified U.S. mediation or battlefield shifts could alter dynamics.",
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