This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027
Volume
3.9M
24h volume
227.3K
1w volume
2.0M
Open interest
989.1K
Liquidity
719.9K
Liquidity CLOB
719.9K
Start
Nov 5, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 5, 2025
Event ID
73196
Slug
will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027
Markets
2
{
"id": "73196",
"ticker": "will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027",
"slug": "will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027",
"title": "Will US withdraw from NATO by...?",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nAny action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.\n\nThe U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"resolutionSource": "",
"startDate": "2025-11-05T19:10:34.893313Z",
"creationDate": "2025-11-05T19:10:34.893311Z",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-withdraw-the-us-from-nato-in-2025-an362ZpwM_Zp.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-withdraw-the-us-from-nato-in-2025-an362ZpwM_Zp.jpg",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"archived": false,
"new": false,
"featured": true,
"restricted": true,
"liquidity": 719872.44916,
"volume": 3869173.7294199853,
"openInterest": 989126.818869,
"createdAt": "2025-11-04T21:49:02.503071Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T09:02:57.237443Z",
"competitive": 0.8772884068091616,
"volume24hr": 227291.81496699995,
"volume1wk": 2003475.9214630027,
"volume1mo": 3742011.0944420076,
"volume1yr": 3869173.729420008,
"enableOrderBook": true,
"liquidityClob": 719872.44916,
"negRisk": false,
"commentCount": 61,
"markets": [
{
"id": "665480",
"question": "Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?",
"conditionId": "0x09bd898af149ff142f72abd30709dadf4fedafcce3b00ef37fd62a733063d7c9",
"slug": "will-us-withdraw-from-nato-before-2027-348-975-598-224-737",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "96889.28778",
"startDate": "2025-11-05T19:01:04.889Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-withdraw-the-us-from-nato-in-2025-an362ZpwM_Zp.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-withdraw-the-us-from-nato-in-2025-an362ZpwM_Zp.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nAny action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.\n\nThe U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.126\", \"0.874\"]",
"volume": "772739.4830100003",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2025-11-04T21:49:03.12225Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T09:00:59.903914Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "December 31",
"groupItemThreshold": "2",
"questionID": "0x6643262e9bf9bc8d518a8d6b98e1f49c8a537f9ecc41590edd60589a7352b835",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 772739.4830100003,
"liquidityNum": 96889.28778,
"endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
"startDateIso": "2025-11-05",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 7206.729639,
"volume1wk": 238674.72141500004,
"volume1mo": 645576.848032,
"volume1yr": 772739.4830100005,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"17540726999074768109459325330147925578223846904053718101370100723042933774840\", \"23292838992754288443599105453645327195065821436549655583078911490396768004449\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 7206.729639,
"volume1wkClob": 238674.72141500004,
"volume1moClob": 645576.848032,
"volume1yrClob": 772739.4830100005,
"volumeClob": 772739.4830100003,
"liquidityClob": 96889.28778,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-11-05T19:00:43Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8772884068091616,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"clobRewards": [
{
"id": "90898",
"conditionId": "0x09bd898af149ff142f72abd30709dadf4fedafcce3b00ef37fd62a733063d7c9",
"assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
"rewardsAmount": 0,
"rewardsDailyRate": 100,
"startDate": "2026-03-02",
"endDate": "2500-12-31"
}
],
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.002,
"oneDayPriceChange": 0.0005,
"oneWeekPriceChange": 0.0235,
"oneMonthPriceChange": 0.079,
"lastTradePrice": 0.125,
"bestBid": 0.125,
"bestAsk": 0.127,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2025-11-05T18:59:46.607527Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
},
{
"id": "1820098",
"question": "Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?",
"conditionId": "0x74d91fa19bbdae4b7afba167f3d297d7c135d87053b1433d1d71d966da64550b",
"slug": "will-us-withdraw-from-nato-by-april-30-583-663",
"resolutionSource": "",
"endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
"liquidity": "621333.50169",
"startDate": "2026-04-01T20:41:04.05029Z",
"image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-withdraw-the-us-from-nato-in-2025-an362ZpwM_Zp.jpg",
"icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/will-trump-withdraw-the-us-from-nato-in-2025-an362ZpwM_Zp.jpg",
"description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nA notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.\n\nAny action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.\n\nThe U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to \"Yes\". \n\nThe resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
"outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
"outcomePrices": "[\"0.0085\", \"0.9915\"]",
"volume": "3098434.2464099852",
"active": true,
"closed": false,
"marketMakerAddress": "",
"createdAt": "2026-04-01T20:31:00.22808Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-14T09:00:58.494435Z",
"new": false,
"featured": false,
"submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
"archived": false,
"resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
"restricted": true,
"groupItemTitle": "April 30",
"groupItemThreshold": "0",
"questionID": "0xda9d1451fcb608ea25c69bd096508bcfb1c67980367d37bc7987e8e4f0730b2f",
"enableOrderBook": true,
"orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
"orderMinSize": 5,
"volumeNum": 3098434.2464099852,
"liquidityNum": 621333.50169,
"endDateIso": "2026-04-30",
"startDateIso": "2026-04-01",
"hasReviewedDates": true,
"volume24hr": 222085.08532799996,
"volume1wk": 1766789.2000480026,
"volume1mo": 3098434.2464100076,
"volume1yr": 3098434.2464100076,
"clobTokenIds": "[\"37339243082539902522082782554938254122014865577420153623737376649900671604414\", \"63428747946757965627623127875457196319778634309655676387245933195406610492581\"]",
"umaBond": "500",
"umaReward": "5",
"volume24hrClob": 222085.08532799996,
"volume1wkClob": 1766789.2000480026,
"volume1moClob": 3098434.2464100076,
"volume1yrClob": 3098434.2464100076,
"volumeClob": 3098434.2464099852,
"liquidityClob": 621333.50169,
"customLiveness": 0,
"acceptingOrders": true,
"negRisk": false,
"negRiskRequestID": "",
"ready": false,
"funded": false,
"acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-04-01T20:39:59Z",
"cyom": false,
"competitive": 0.8054303726585385,
"pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
"approved": true,
"rewardsMinSize": 200,
"rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
"spread": 0.001,
"oneDayPriceChange": -0.007,
"oneHourPriceChange": -0.001,
"oneWeekPriceChange": -0.0045,
"lastTradePrice": 0.008,
"bestBid": 0.008,
"bestAsk": 0.009,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"clearBookOnStart": true,
"seriesColor": "",
"showGmpSeries": false,
"showGmpOutcome": false,
"manualActivation": false,
"negRiskOther": false,
"umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-01T20:38:47.151235Z",
"rfqEnabled": false,
"holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
"feesEnabled": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"feeType": null
}
],
"tags": [
{
"id": "2",
"label": "Politics",
"slug": "politics",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
"updatedBy": 13,
"createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:35:26.76623Z",
"forceHide": true,
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101970",
"label": "World",
"slug": "world",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-03-19T23:36:08.498099Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:25:02.420693Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "126",
"label": "Trump",
"slug": "trump",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:16.384+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:16.39Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:01.330974Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101794",
"label": "Foreign Policy",
"slug": "foreign-policy",
"forceShow": false,
"createdAt": "2025-02-06T17:24:29.604203Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:19:21.425957Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "96",
"label": "Ukraine",
"slug": "ukraine",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:18:49.922+00",
"updatedBy": 15,
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:18:49.94Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:22:22.039982Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "100265",
"label": "Geopolitics",
"slug": "geopolitics",
"forceShow": true,
"createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:29:03.520452Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "101569",
"label": "Greenland",
"slug": "greenland",
"createdAt": "2024-12-23T16:03:09.321825Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-03-09T22:18:21.333559Z",
"requiresTranslation": false
},
{
"id": "192",
"label": "NATO",
"slug": "nato",
"forceShow": false,
"publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:32:51.07+00",
"createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:32:51.092Z",
"updatedAt": "2026-04-01T15:00:09.039766Z",
"isCarousel": false,
"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": false,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"featuredOrder": 24,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "President Trump's recent threats to withdraw the United States from NATO, voiced amid allies' refusal to assist with Strait of Hormuz security during the Iran conflict, have heightened transatlantic tensions and driven trader focus on alliance reciprocity. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed on April 8, 2026, that exit discussions are underway but contingent on congressional approval, as a 2024 law mandates a two-thirds Senate vote or legislative act—barriers unmet to date. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's April 7-12 Washington meetings sought to ease frictions, yet European leaders like Poland's defense minister warn of existential risks without U.S. participation. No formal denunciation under Article 13 has occurred, with upcoming NATO summits and potential Senate debates as key catalysts.",
"context_requires_regen": true,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-14T09:02:18.351Z"
}
}